Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/87847
Title: | 碳定價對於產業鏈之供需影響評估之情境分析: 以臺灣產業鏈為例 The Effect of Carbon Pricing Policy on Industry Chain and Its Future Change: The Case of Taiwan Production Network |
Authors: | 林暐盛 Wei-Sheng Lin |
Advisor: | 童慶斌 Ching-Pin Tung |
Keyword: | 氣候變遷,轉型風險,碳定價,產業鏈,可計算一般均衡模型, climate change,transition risk,carbon pricing,industry chain,computational general equilibrium model, |
Publication Year : | 2023 |
Degree: | 碩士 |
Abstract: | 碳定價相關制度會對產業營運帶來額外支出,且產業中的企業若為因應碳定價費用而調漲產品價格,將進一步透過產業供應鏈間的成本轉嫁,以及下游產業的替代效應而影響供應鏈供需關係。因此,一個產業所受之碳定價制度衝擊程度,除了取決於直接的費用支出外,也可能受其所在產業鏈之位置影響。此外,在未來有許多動態的變化因子,包含碳價格、經濟與產能的成長、能源使用效率改善,也將近一步改變產業供需結構以及碳定價的影響程度。
臺灣為出口導向的國際電子與科技產品的代工重鎮,其中的產業除了可能遭受臺灣政府可能於未來實行的國內碳費政策影響外,也可能受到未來國際以歐盟為首的碳邊境調整機制措施衝擊,影響整體營運與財務表現。因此,找出可能會受到碳定價政策顯著負面影響的產業,將對於產業/企業利害關係人之決策調整有巨大幫助。 本研究將使用可計算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium, CGE) 模型建構產業之間的供需變化,產出每個產業的價格與產量等指標在不同情境下的變化,同時依據所設定的四種不同情境調整動態因子,呈現政策、經濟以及能源效率在未來不同時期對整體碳定價影響程度的改變,在產出結果上主要聚焦於臺灣各產業的相關指標變化。本研究範疇涵蓋67個國家(整合為五大地區)以及每個地區中的45項產業,模擬時間依據不同情境分別涵蓋2025與2035年。 研究結果呈現出在有序轉型-2030年情境(全球循序漸進進行氣候轉型發展至2030年之情境)下,臺灣各產業受碳定價費用而產生相對基準情境的價格變化範圍自0.60%至37.73%,產量變化範圍則自0.24%至-13.34%。此結果展現出各產業間所受衝擊程度的顯著差距,且所受衝擊程度仍主要取決於自身所受的碳定價費用支出,產業鏈所帶來的間接影響相對輕微。而從情境間的差距比較,結果顯示越高的碳價格以及越短的轉型時間可能會對各產業帶來越顯著的衝擊,尤其是本身受碳定價影響大之產業差距更顯著,故無序轉型-2030年情境(全球以較急遽且無秩序之氣候轉型持續至2030年之情境)將帶來最大的影響。而從有序轉型-多地區碳價上升-2030情境(在有序轉型之假設下調整歐洲與中國等地之區域碳定價價格同步上升並持續至2030年之情境)則可以觀察到臺灣的製造業相關產業會因來自中國、歐洲地區的中間投入成本上升而受到更大衝擊,相對而言服務業相關產業則會相對受益於替代效應。 Carbon pricing policy can bring operational cost for industries. In addition, an industry may adjust their product prices in response to these costs, and this could further affect the supply-demand relationship through cost pass-through and substitution effect from each industry, causing the total production amount of the industries to change. Moreover, there are several dynamic factors, such as carbon price level, production growth and improvement of energy efficiency, which will further change the industry structure and the level of impact by carbon pricing policy in different period. As a result, the industry sector could be affected by carbon price, and some industries could suffer more severe impact due to their GHG emission or their positions in production chain. Taiwan is an export-oriented territory whose industries plays an important role in the international value chains. The relevant industries and other carbon-intensive industries may be impacted by not only the domestic carbon fee regulation by Taiwanese government, but also the carbon border tax policy such as EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). These regulations will bring effect to the financial and marketing performance of the industries. By finding the most affect industries in Taiwan, not only the companies can design strategies early to adapt, but also the government and even the financial institutes can obtain more information to make decisions. The research adopts the computational general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the change of supply-demand structure raised by carbon pricing policy and carbon border tax between industries of different countries/regions in the world. Under this research, 4 sets of simulation are conducted. Each one is set in different period, scenario and number of regions implementing carbon price, then the dynamic factors are adjusted correspondingly as the input for simulation. The main outputs of this research are (1) the product price and (2) the amount of production for each industry under simulation, including 5 countries/regions and 45 industries in each region, and this research focuses on the impact of the industries in Taiwan. In this research, the simulated periods are 2030 and 2035, depends on the scenario adopted. The result of this research shows that under the orderly transition - 2030 scenario, the rises of product/service price from each industry in Taiwan range from +0.60% to 37.73% due to carbon pricing policy, and the amount of production changes from +0.24% to -13.34%, relative to the baseline scenario. This result demonstrates high difference of impact among the industries, which mainly depends on the carbon pricing expenditure of each industry comparing to the effects of industry chain. As for different scenarios, the result shows more severe impacts for high sensitivity industries under scenarios with higher level of carbon price and shorter time for transition. Therefore, the disorderly transition – 2030 scenario brings the most serious impact for the Taiwanese industrial sector. In addition, under orderly transition- carbon price for multiple region – 2030 scenario, the Taiwanese manufacturing industries suffers from higher costs due to the rising price of Intermediate inputs from China and Europe, whereas the service industries relatively benefits from the substitute effects. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/87847 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202300801 |
Fulltext Rights: | 同意授權(全球公開) |
Appears in Collections: | 氣候變遷與永續發展國際學位學程(含碩士班、博士班) |
Files in This Item:
File | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|
ntu-111-2.pdf Until 2028-05-15 | 1.52 MB | Adobe PDF |
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.