退群與新建: 權力轉移下美國的多邊軍事安全制度策略選擇 (2001-2021)

Abstract

隨著中國國力的日益發展，加上中國軍力於印太地區不斷增強下，美國作為印太地區的支配性強權感受到來自於中國軍力提升所造成的威脅，進而在川普執政時期採取了許多戰略政策來應對中國的崛起。過往文獻在提及「權力移轉」以及「大國競爭」時，多關注於整個體系結構下的權力是否發生變動，對於地區性的權力變動與競爭，以及權力可能移轉的時間點研究較少探討。 本研究奠基於當代美國與中國之間在印太地區的權力競爭作為本研究的啟發，試圖探討美國作為支配性強權為何在近年於印太地區有許多激烈的戰略政策來應對中國，以及相關的戰略政策手段又為何，並透過分析與探討美國作為支配性強權的戰略回應，進一步補充過往「權力轉移理論」較少觸及的面向。 本研究以美國「中程飛彈條約退群」以及「四方安全會談新建」為個案，針對從小布希政府至川普政府進行一系列的分析，此外以本文研究架構來驗證與分析美國作為支配性強權的戰略回應。在研究方法上，採用歷史分析法、比較研究法、案例分析法以及文字探勘，並在參見Edelstein(2017)提出的崛起強權衰弱強權戰略互動分析架構後，提出本研究的研究架構進行分析，了解美國作為支配性強權如何應對中國地區性軍事權力的崛起。 研究結果發現當美國認知到中國地區性的軍事權力上升並且與其權力逐漸拉近時，美國作為支配性強權將思考中國作為崛起強權的戰略佈局，當美國認知到中國將採取長線戰略來追逐可能的權力移轉時，美國也以長線戰略作為強烈回應，其中以「退群」作為先決措施，當沒有相關組織架構時，再以「新建」作為其戰略政策，因而自從小布希政府到川普政府，美國對中國印太地區軍力進行評估，採取「退群」與「新建」的戰略來捍衛自身作為支配性強權的利益。

As China's national power and military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region have grown, the United States, as the dominant power in the region, has implemented various strategies to respond to this development, particularly during the Trump administration. While previous studies have mainly focused on power transitions at the national level, less attention has been paid to regional power shifts and the timing of such transitions. This research aims to explore why the U.S. has adopted various strategic policies to deal with China's rise in the Indo-Pacific region in recent years and the implications for current international relation theory. Specifically, this study examines two case studies, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Quad, and conducts a series of analyses from the Bush administration to the Trump administration. The research methodology employed includes historical analysis, comparative study, case study, and text-mining. Based on Edelstein's (2017) framework of strategic interactions between rising and declining powers, this research proposes a framework to analyze how the U.S. as a dominant power responds to the rise of China's regional military power. The results suggest that as the U.S. recognizes China's growing regional military power and its potential threat, the U.S. responds with a long-term strategy that involves "withdrawal" followed by "New Construction." From the Bush administration to the Trump administration, the U.S. has assessed China's military power in the Indo-Pacific region and adopted these strategies to defend its interests as a dominant power. In conclusion, this study sheds light on the dynamics of power transitions and competition in the Indo-Pacific region, and it provides insights into the strategic responses of the U.S. to China's rise as a dominant power. This research contributes to current international relation theory by examining the role of regional power shifts and the timing of power transitions in shaping the strategies of dominant powers.