貝氏統計於聯合分析法之序列決策下個人價格敏感度探討

Abstract

綜觀過往諸多價格敏感度相關研究多以異質性作為探討標的，以不同家戶、個體基礎對於不同價格水準下橫斷面的整體性互動作為主要研究架構，相當程度壓縮抑或是忽略時間性、序列性所產生的動態性變化，對於消費者序列決策下所展現的認知價值、消費行為以及貨幣保留效用波動性甚少具有系統且量化的研究模式與理論進行估計與探討。 本研究以探討消費者序列決策下價格敏感度動態性為研究主題，並以日式迴轉壽司的點餐決策作為本次研究個案。為有效攫取消費者序列決策下價格敏感度動態性，研究者構建菜單式數量基礎聯合分析法，其中，聯合分析法蔚為價格敏感度估計的常用途徑。研究者嘗試以餐點類別呈現次序、價格水準區間作為本次研究的操作變因。受測者將於高度實驗控制下的模擬點餐情境中，面臨具隨機性的菜單頁面，隨機性的來源有餐點類別的呈現次序以及價格水準的區間變動，進行數次完整且獨立點餐決策，產生整體性、階段性以及階段性餐點類別的巢狀資料架構，研究者接續據此發展貝氏迴歸模式以進行受測者個人層級於序列決策下價格敏感度估計，衡量受測者於不同階段下的價格敏感度。 本次研究中受測者確實展現價格敏感度動態性，整體而言，受測者價格敏感度將隨著階段遞進而漸趨敏感，研究者進一步以個人層級下的階段性價格敏感度進行層級式集群分析，發現事實上不同的集群間所展現的階段性價格敏感度走勢大相逕庭，不僅價格敏感度數值高低落差巨大外，價格敏感度走勢更分作峰型、谷型，說明不同的集群間於特定階段下貨幣保留效用具備歧異的認知。 研究者以實際的階段性餐點類別價格敏感度估計結果，提供餐旅業者於實務面上的動態性定價法可行性支持，以點餐階段決策優先以及餐點類別決策優先的指引最佳化菜單頁面次序的呈現。

Most studies related to price sensitivity focus on heterogeneity as subjects of investigation, depending on the cross-sectional interaction of price level within the household or individual. In such structure, researchers might compress or neglect the dynamic changes caused by the time-series of sequential extent, lacking the systematic and quantitative model for estimating and investigating cognitive value, consumption behavior and monetary utility of customers along with the sequential-decision making. The study focuses on investigating the dynamic of price sensitivity of customers during the sequential-decision making, taking orders of conveyor belt sushi as an example. In order to effectively capture the dynamic of price sensitivity of customers, researcher establishes menu-based volumetric conjoint analysis which is a common approach to estimate price sensitivity. In menu-based volumetric conjoint analysis, the presenting order of meal category and price interval are operational variables. During the experiment, we may retrieve nested data structure comprises overall, sequential, and sequentially category data. Thus, we develop a Bayesian regression model for estimating price sensitivities of respondents under each specific data structure, representing the appearance of dynamic of price sensitivity. Respondents present dynamic of price sensitivity in variety ways. Two sequential patterns emerge among different clusters, suggesting that vastly different cognitive monetary values may exist between different cluster. The difference of the cognitive value of monetary might provide an opportunity for marketing managers to construct market segmentation.