政府政策對推廣新能源汽車需求之影響——以中國深圳市為例

Abstract

本研究利用2020年1月至12月中國深圳市之250個新能源乘用車車型的月銷售資料，分析補貼以及專用車輛號牌兩項最重要的國家政策對新能源汽車消費需求的影響。實證方法為巢式Logit模型，結果發現國家補貼對消費者的購車需求有正向效果，但不顯著。新能源汽車汽車專用車輛號牌則效果相反，顯示隨著新能源汽車需求量日益膨脹，發放專用車輛號牌對提高消費者購車需求的積極作用逐漸式微，且已產生顯著負向效果。 根據實證發現，本研究對中國發展新能源汽車提出建議：針對實施限牌限行的城市在持續推廣政府政策之時，應延緩財政補貼退坡的時間，並適度加大地方的補貼力度。對於新能源汽車專用號牌則需進一步提高上牌標準。參照國家機動車排放標準，對新能源汽車設置嚴厲的排放認證，加速淘汰濫竽充數、不合需求的車輛產品。面對大量新能源汽車的道路使用需求，亦需要開始注意對部分專用號牌的車輛實施限行，以平衡車輛消費需求與未來城市交通順暢的狀況。

Based on the monthly sales data of 250 new energy passenger vehicle models in Shenzhen from January to December 2020, this study analyzes the impact of two most important national policies, state subsidies and special vehicle license, on the consumption demand of new energy vehicles. By using the nested Logit model to estimate the parameters of the consumer utility function of the two policies. The empirical results show that the government subsidy has a positive effect on consumers' demand for car purchase, but the result is not significant. The effect of special vehicle license for new energy vehicles is the opposite. In this study, puts forward the following visions and suggestions for the development of new energy vehicles in China: delay the time of financial subsidy retreat, and moderately increase the local subsidies. Special license for new energy vehicles needs to further improve the licensing standards. Strict emission certification for new energy vehicles will be set up to accelerate the elimination of substandard vehicle products. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of restrictions on some vehicles with special vehicle license, so as to balance the vehicle consumption demand and smooth urban traffic in the future.