海面溫度、雲的垂直結構、風速在全球暖化趨緩結束前後對熱帶西太平洋地區溫度變化的效應

Abstract

本論文研究位於熱帶西太平洋(tropical western Pacific)地區的一局部海域在近年全球暖化趨緩(warming hiatus)結束之前與之後兩個時期的顯著溫度變化。在此二時期，三個可能對區域溫度產生影響的環境因素，包含海面溫度(sea surface temperature)、雲的垂直結構(vertical structure)以及風速(wind speed)也觀察到顯著的改變。在本研究中，我們開發了一個整合對流調整法(convective adjustment)和海面通量(sea surface flux)交換的一維(one-dimensional)大氣輻射傳送模式(radiative transfer model)，用以模擬前述三個可能的環境因素在兩個時期的差異對於該區域中接近氣海界面(air-sea interface)溫度的日變化(diurnal variation)的效應。在模擬過程中，該三項環境因素的數值皆根據文獻中提及的資料或模型推算。藉由三項環境因素改變，我們設計了不同組合下的模擬情境(scenario)，並以所開發的大氣輻射熱傳模式進行模擬。最後對不同模擬情境下得到的溫度日變化進行統計分析與交叉比較，得到三項環境因素對該地區溫度變化個別與複合的效應。

A region in the tropical western Pacific is selected to study the notable change in temperature between the recent warming hiatus period and the post-hiatus period. In total, three probable factors, namely sea-surface temperature (SST), cloud vertical structure (CVS) and wind speed, which may account for the temperature change are found to exhibit noticeable differences between these two periods. A one-dimensional atmospheric radiative transfer model, incorporating convective adjustment and energy exchange with the ocean, is developed to simulate the diurnal pattern of temperature profile under the influence of the three probable factors in the two concerned periods. Virtual profiles of sea-surface temperature, cloud vertical structure and wind speed in both periods are developed from data available in the literature. Diurnal patterns of temperatures near the air-sea interface are computed with the proposed model over a sufficient number of days. The simulated temperatures under different combinations of factors, in either the hiatus or post-hiatus period, are statistically analyzed to gain insights about the separate and combined effects of these three factors on causing climate change.