布吉納法索出口芝麻的績效與因素

Abstract

Following recent tremendous growth in volume and value of sesame seed exports from BFA, and with an unequaled performance observed, we deemed it necessary to identify through a co-integration approach the effects of key determinants and their magnitude on sesame exports performance. Purposely, this thesis specified export earnings of sesame seed as the independent variable to analyze the country export performance using time series data for the period of 47 years (1970-2016). One co-integration vector is observed in the system. Thereby the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is performed in order to tie the short-run dynamics to the long-run equilibrium. The empirical results reveal that nominal exchange rate, producer price, world export volume of sesame seed as a proxy of world demand, and world export price are key factors affecting the country’s exports performance in the short-run. Moreover, the empirical results show that nominal exchange rate, the production, producer price and world demand are factors affecting positively exports performance of sesame seed in the long-run. However, the effects of producer price and world demand are insignificant. The long-run results show evidence of a significant and negative effect of international prices on sesame exports performance in the long-run. Both the negative effects and the insignificant effects could be caused by the unaddressed short-run inefficiencies and development constraints in the sector. Identifying and critically addressing these inefficiencies is necessary for the country to keep its exports competiveness in the future. The Error Correction Term (ECT) adjusts any deviation from the long-run to the equilibrium by 36.86% within a year.