美中安全戰略陷入「修昔底德陷阱」緣起、發展及可能走向之研究

Abstract

自2010年中國GDP超過日本成為全球第二大經濟體後，中國崛起富強經濟、規劃一帶一路戰略、南海島礁軍事部署、科技強軍建設等強勢作為，致使美中正式陷入「修昔底德陷阱」(Thucydides Trap)；2012年習近平以中國未來大戰略、實踐中國夢之偉大復興與擴大軍事經濟影響力遠程目標，開始挑戰美國全球霸權及國際秩序，雙方衝突逐步墊高；2016年起，美國總統川普為遏止中國快速崛起，軍事以重返亞洲戰略轉變為印太戰略，結合美、日、印、澳及韓、臺、菲等盟邦，強化及整合區域安全合作，經濟以保護民主避免紅色供應滲透，同時讓印太盟國安全信賴地緣經貿合作發展，展示美國捍衛全球霸權決心，期間運用貿易戰、科技戰、關稅戰及高科技限制輸出等作為強勢遏止中國崛起；然中國強權的崛起過程，是否依然如歷史軌跡，宿命的將以殘酷戰爭挑戰既存霸權；美國以國家優勢應對中國挑戰以確保戰略優勢，中國以崛起強權面對美國全面壓制，尋求稱霸亞洲戰略突圍箝制障礙，美中將於衝突之國際事務中對抗，本研究將運用科技發展戰略方向、核威脅及新冷戰局面發展趨勢等，研判並歸納美中未來三種可能走向。 一、美中雙方核武持續和平：毀滅性核武嚇阻及核武反擊造成毀滅性傷害，並為世人所認知不可承受之恐懼，美中分別擁有數千及數百餘枚核彈，雙方均具備毀滅性打擊及反擊能力，尤以核潛艇更具威攝，故威脅及保障國家安全，將以協商交涉為措施而非核武交戰衝突，達到解決爭端避免全面性戰爭，美中雙方將摩擦升級但有自制的衝突，持續傳統軍備發展威脅對峙。 二、美中代理人區域戰爭：美中關係緊張加劇，為求雙方國家利益，亦會避免直接對抗衝突，如東海、臺海及南海等地區，將展開代理人戰爭，美中會加強聯合盟邦嚇阻，並結盟重要勢力國家以擴大影響力，代理人戰爭將以提供軍事、經濟資源及國際支持，削弱對手屈服，惟避免戰爭燒向自己影響國家利益。 三、美中將形成新冷戰局面，在嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎後，兩國間民意仇恨、經貿逆差、竊取科技、意識型態及文化衝突等方面，美中將積極兩大陣營對抗運作，各自樹立國際戰略信譽，並於盟國危難時提供更多可靠支援，使盟國陣營能夠延續支持霸權大國之國際權力，軍事將以美國為主導，形成東亞新北約聯盟與中國對峙，中國是極權國家，中國共產黨終將面對人民之民主需求，勢必無法阻擋民主浪潮而產生質變。

China has overtaken Japan as the world's second-biggest economy since 2010. China’s aggressive behaviors include promoting the economic prosperity of emerging China, strategic planning of the Belt and Road Initiative, military deployments on islands in the South China Sea, and science and technology development in parallel with military building have caused the United States and China to fall into the "Thucydides trap". In 2012 Xi Jinping announced China’s long-term goals which included promoting China’s Grand Strategy, achieving the ‘China Dream’ of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and expanding military and economic influence which has begun to challenge U.S. global hegemony and the international order. Tension has been rising between the United States and China ever since. In order to constrain China’s rapid rise, since 2016 US President Donald Trump has implemented measures to demonstrate the United States determination to defend its global dominance. The United States government has altered its military strategy of "Pivot to Asia" into the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” to include its allies such as Japan, India, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines; strengthened and integrated regional security cooperation; to defend democracy to prevent China’s ‘red’ supply chain penetration; to secure the Indo-Pacific allies’ trust in developing cooperation in geopolitics, economy, and trade. The United States has employed a trade war and tech-war, imposed tariffs and limitations on high-tech exports to greatly constrain the rise of China. However, during the aggressive rising process of China, the question of whether history will repeat itself when a rising power rivals an established power resulting in a brutal war is asked. The United States responds to China’s challenges by using its capability and advantages in all areas to secure a strategic advantage. Facing strategic constraints from the United States, China as a rising power seeks to dominate Asia and to break through the barriers in its way. The United States and China will inevitably confront each other due to conflicting international affairs. This research analyses and concludes three possible future trends of the United States-China relationship from the perspectives of the strategic development of science and technology, nuclear threats and the developing towards a new Cold War. First, the United States and China will not seek to use nuclear weapons: Destructive nuclear weapons and nuclear counterattack would cause catastrophic damage and unbearable fear. Both the United States and China are in possession of thousands of nuclear bombs and are equipped with devastating strike and counter-attack abilities. In particular, their nuclear submarines are an even stronger deterrent. As a result, disputes such as threats and national security issues will be resolved through negotiations rather than nuclear war in order to avoid a ‘total war’. Tensions between the United States and China will escalate but both sides will exercise self-restraint. However, military development, threats and confrontation will continue. Second, the United States and China’s proxy wars: Tension between the United States and China increases. For the sake of the national interests, both sides will avoid direct confrontation in regions such as the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. The United States and China will wage proxy wars and strengthen joint alliances with other nations as a deterrent. They will forge alliances with strategically important countries to expand influence. The proxy war will provide them with military and economic resources and international support, as well as compromise their rivals while avoiding a war that would damage national interests directly. Third, the United States and China will enter a new Cold War scenario: After the COVID19 pandemic, the two countries’ public hostility towards each other, trade deficit, Chinese theft of technology, ideological and cultural conflicts combined will cause the two camps to increase confrontations and attempt to establish their own strategic reputation in the international community. Both sides will provide their allies with more reliable and increasing support in times of crisis in return for their allies’ continued support for the two countries’ respective international influence. To confront China, the United States will maintain its military dominance and forge a new NATO-type alliance in East Asia. As a totalitarian country the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will eventually face rising demands from the people for democracy and change will be unavoidable.