股票定時定額投資法模擬分析

Abstract

本論文主要是研究定時定額投資法，運用股東權益報酬率《ROE》、《EPS》、《市值具規模及流動性》這三個指標，篩選出符合條件25檔個股，模擬在各種不同投資方式之下投資台股其投資報酬率是否有差異，並以「價值型投資法」、「巴菲特財務理論投資法則」以及國內外學者研究為依據，為提高模擬的精準度本研究特別選定兩個不同區間做比較，希望透過模擬情境分析，找出最有利投資方式。本研究資料擷取期間為2006年1月1日到2015年12月31日，個股樣本為2006年到2010年符合設定條件篩選出來的標的，參考資料依照台灣證券交易所資料庫以及櫃買中心資料庫。 本文研究結論如下 : 1 . 長期而言，單筆一次性（總額）投資比股票定時定額投資報酬率為高。2 . 在定時定額投資三組模擬情境中發現，落實篩選樣本個股機制，只要有一年有一項不符合篩選條件即停止該樣本個股扣款，並同時出清所有投資部位。此組報酬率為最高，顯見在投資過程中需審慎了解並掌握投資個股的獲利及財報狀況，除可提高獲利外亦可降低投資的風險及損失。3 . 長期而言，股票定時定額投資報酬率比銀行定存利率為高。 本研究從模擬結果顯示，定時定額投資法是一個非常好的投資方式，唯建議投資除慎選好的投資標的外，更應該定時檢視投資標的，過程中排除表現不佳個股外也要隨時加入表現突出的個股，對獲利更有幫助。且在面對股市多頭與空頭時可提高或降低投入的金額及頻率，另外值得一提是此投資方式除台股外也適用在有完整監理制度以及財報公開透明的區域以及國家。

The thesis of this article is to study the Systematic Investment Plan, by using the The Return on Equity “ROE,” “EPS,” “Market Capitalization Scale and Liquidity,” selected 25 eligible stocks stall. By utilizing various ways of investment as a simulation to see if the return on investment of TAIEX is different. Then apply Benjamin Graham’s “Value Investing,” “The Warren Buffett Mastering The Power of The Focus Investment Strategy” and the other domestic and foreign scholars’ studies as a basis. In order to improve the accuracy of the simulation test, the research specially chooses two different areas to compare each other. Hope to find the best investment method through the simulation analysis. The data of this research are acquainted from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2015. However, the samples stocks that meet the qualification are selected from 2006 to 2010. All the data and materials are based on Taiwan Stock Exchange and Taipei Exchange. The conclusions of this research are list in the following: 1. In the long term, the return on investment of lump sum investing is higher than dollar-cost averaging. 2. In the three different simulations of dollar cost averaging scenario, practically filter sample stocks; as long as there is a year that fails to meet the requirement, the charge of stock stops right away. At the same time, clearing all the investment position. The ROI of this group is the highest. Therefore, to be careful and understand the profit of stock and the financial condition during the whole investing process, it not only helps to improve the profit, but also lower the risk of the lost. 3. In the long term, the ROI of dollar cost averaging is higher than the time deposit interest rate. In this study, the simulation shows that the dollar-cost averaging is a very brilliant way of investing. Only suggest to carefully choose the good investment target, moreover, regularly examine the subject. Remove the underperforming stocks at any time, meanwhile, to keep on track of the outstanding stocks and add them: it definitely helps the profit. Remembering to raise or lower the frequency and amount of investment when facing the stock market bulls and bears. On the other hand, this method of investing is not only works for TAIEX; it also works for countries that have a complete system of supervision and earnings transparency.