越南應對中國崛起之避險戰略（2000-2018）

Abstract

昔日處在中國統轄下近千年的越南，與中國存在深厚的歷史淵源，在獨立建國後如何處理與北方強鄰的大小不對稱關係，一直是考驗越南的重要議題。本研究採取新古典現實主義的跨層次分析，探討體系層次及單元層次的因素如何影響越南對中的安全戰略選擇。體系層次包含國際權力分配及區域次層次的越中軍力對比、經貿關係；單元層次包含國家層次的越共意識形態及個人層次的領導菁英認知偏好。檢視中國崛起後（2000-2018年），越南的兩任總書記農德孟及阮富仲時期，任內兩次越中之間的重大衝突事件前後，對中戰略在軍事安全、政治外交及社會經濟方面有何轉變，分析主要的影響變項，並比較兩時期的異同。 研究發現越南對中國的安全戰略，體系因素決定越南採取混合的避險戰略，細部操作取決於國家及決策者個人層次之因素。在軍事安全方面主要受中國軍力崛起所改變的體系層次因素所決定，兩位總書記皆採取避險偏向抗衡的戰略；政治外交方面主要受決策者的認知偏好影響，因此兩時期的抗衡程度變化有所差異；社會經濟方面則在體系層次上由於對中國的經貿依賴程度提高，且國家層次部分越共長期將經濟發展視為優先，因此皆對中採取扈從的戰略。

Vietnam, used to be a part of Chinese empire for over ten decades, share a long and complicated history with China. Since Ngo Quyen defeated the Chinese and gained independence for Vietnam, how to deal with China-Vietnam asymmetrical relations has been a core issue for Vietnam. The thesis tries to answer the following questions: What is Vietnam’s strategy towards a rising China from 2000 to 2018 under the leadership of Nông Đức Mạnh and Nguyễn Phú Trọng? How does the strategy change in terms of military, diplomacy, and economy after China-Vietnam major conflicts? What causes the differences? Building on the level-of-analysis approach of neoclassical realism, systemic level elements are used as independent variables, namely distribution of power of the international system, the comparison of military strength between China and Vietnam, and China-Vietnam economic ties; unit level elements as moderators, including the ideology of Vietnamese Communist Party and the preference of political leaders; Vietnam’s security strategy as the dependent variable. The thesis tries to provides the answer of to what extent do moderators influence the correlation between independent variables and dependent variable. After the discussion and comparison of variables of Vietnam’s choice on hedging strategies during the two general secretary tenures, the thesis argues that the structural factors have determined the adoption of hedging strategy. Yet the detailed operation depends on unit level. Both leaders employ “hedging strategy with higher extend of balancing” in military facet toward China due to the higher security threat caused by China’s rising military strength; in terms of diplomatic strategy, the preference of leader has large influence on the strategy; however, no matter who heads the country, “bandwagon” better illustrates its economic strategy toward China for the reason that Vietnam’s economic dependence on China have been continuously increasing, and that Vietnamese Communist Party always regards economic growth as the main goal. Overall, Vietnam adopts “mixed strategy” to handle China’s rise.