論中華民國九十六年罪犯減刑條例對法官量刑的影響

Abstract

本論文研究《中華民國九十六年罪犯減刑條例》對法官量刑的影響。依據該法，法官於民國96年7月16日後審理竊盜案件時，若竊盜的犯罪時間在96年4月24日之前，且法官宣告該犯罪刑期在一年半以下時，法官須另外宣告刑期減半。本文的研究問題即為：於此種情況時，法官是否會加重原本的宣告刑期來抵銷《減刑條例》的減刑效果？本文使用96年所有地方法院一審含竊盜罪的判決作為樣本，使用regression discontinuity design與difference-in-difference為研究方法。研究發現，於平均六個月的竊盜罪中，法官約會加重30至40天，影響程度約為17%至22%，而在次群體的分析中，發現法官在較為嚴重的竊盜罪，加重量刑的程度也較高。這樣的結果暗示法官既想維持特定的刑期，又擔心過度加重量刑可能導致被告上訴，法官在兩者權衡之下做出了選擇。

According to R.O.C. 2007 A.D. Commutation Code, since 16th July, 2007, when judges are judging theft cases that the defendant committed the crime before 24th April, 2007 and the prison sentence is under 18 months, judges should commute the sentence to half. The research question is whether the judge aggravate the original prison sentence to offset the effect of Commutation Code. This thesis uses all Taiwan district court first instance theft cases in 2007 as sample and adopts regression discontinuity design and difference-in-difference to estimate the causal effect. The research finding shows that among the average 6 months theft cases, judges would aggravate 30 to 40 days, which is 17% to 22%. In subgroup analysis, the more serious theft cases, the stronger the offset effect is. The outcome suggests that judge's sentencing decisions are under the shadow of fair sentencing and the aversion of defendant's appeal.