2000年至2010年台灣農林土地利用變遷之因素分析-農林普查資料之應用

Abstract

本研究使用2000年、2005年及2010年三個年度的農林普查資料，統計顯示2000-2010年農地減少63,251公頃，然林地與休耕地分別增加25,429公頃與37,813公頃，共63,242公頃。此結果顯示農地、林地與休耕地三者之間具有明顯的消長關係，因此運用對數平均Divisia指數法於普查資料中，以探討五種因素：面積、收入、土地利用類型、經營類別及區域對於土地利用變遷之關係。 研究結果顯示，農戶、林戶及休耕戶的增加，導致農地、林地與休耕地的細碎化是影響土地利用變遷的重要原因。土地細碎化也反映在農戶收入上，收入在五萬元以上或以下從事農作的土地面積都減少，並且轉變成收入五萬元以下的休耕地與林地。在經營類別上，兼業農牧戶是唯一土地減少的類別，其土地以轉為休耕地最多，轉為專業農牧戶次之，轉為林業但未參加獎勵位居第三，而轉為參加獎勵造林的最少。就區域而言，中部的土地利用變遷與其他地區有明顯差異，中部的農地轉變成林地居多，其他地區的農地則轉變成休耕地居多。總體而言，台灣農林土地利用變遷為農地轉變成休耕地為主，其次為林地，表示休耕是農戶考量自身土地利用時的首要選擇。此外，2000-2005年土地變動速度較2005-2010年快，土地利用變遷有隨時間而減緩的趨勢。

The study collected the data of agricultural and forestry censuses in 2000, 2005 and 2010 in Taiwan and found that the area of agricultural lands decreased 63,251 hectares, but the total area of forest and fallow lands increased 63,242 hectares, in which 25,429 and 37,813 respectively, from 2000 to 2010. It indicates that there is a close relationship of changes in use among agricultural, forest, and fallow lands during the period. Thus, the study applied log-mean Divisia index method to investigate the relationship in terms of 5 factors, including the size of land area, the level of revenue from land use, management type, land use type and location, based on the census data. The results suggests that the increase of agriculture, forest and fallow households are the main factor that results in the fragmentation of lands which in turn leads to the land use change. Yet another a result of land fragmentation is its impact on farmer’s income. Figures of agricultural land areas had decreased no matter with revenues above or below 50,000 NT dollars; the decreased part of land areas is in turn converted to fallow lands and forest lands which contributed less than 50,000 NT dollars. In terms of management type, part-time farm household is the only category with a decreasing figure, the areas which were former in this category are mostly thus turned into fallow lands, followed by full-time farm household and forestry with no subsidy, respectively. Forestation with subsidy is the category that least percentage of former part-time farm household had decided to change into. As in terms of locations, the land use change in the central region is of significant difference to other regions. The agricultural areas are mostly changed into forest lands in the central region while in other regions the areas are mostly changed into fallow lands. Generally speaking, the land use change in Taiwan is mostly changed from agricultural land to fallow land, followed by from agricultural land to forest land. This indicates the fact that running fallow land is the first priority choice. Furthermore, the change carried out more rapidly during the 2000-2005 period relative to the 2005-2010 period. This implies the fact that the land use change process is slowing down.