臺北文化體育園區非使用價值之條件評估法分析

Abstract

大型體育場館資源之非使用效益，係該類計畫無形社會效益的重要內涵。然而，當前國內體育類別公共建設之計畫效益評估，仍以財務收益可行性的觀點為主，縱就全臺規模最鉅的「臺北文化體育園區」(大巨蛋)計畫觀之，其場館非使用價值的評估資訊亦有所缺漏。職是之故，本研究即從事前評估的角度，應用非市場估價方法中的條件評估法，以及支付卡的詢價方式，針對未來大巨蛋場館之非使用價值進行市民問卷調查，並利用OLS、Ordered Probit與Ordered Logit等迴歸模式建立市民平均願付價格模型，以推估整體大巨蛋場館之非使用價值。 實證分析結果顯示：臺北市民個人的「月所得」與「遺贈效益認同度」為其對於大巨蛋非使用效益願付價格的重要影響變數。其次，就市民每年平均願付價格的分析結果觀之，OLS模型的估計值為1364元，而Ordered Probit模型之估計值為1187元，Ordered Logit模型則估計為2314元。再次，本文利用Ordered Probit與Ordered Logit模型的估計結果，推估未來大巨蛋場館資源之非使用價值，每年約為2,407,269,236至4,692,856,792元，即非使用效益價值的上下界範圍約為24至47億元。 最後，鑒於大型體育場館之座落具有一定的公共財效果，本研究認為該類計畫之效益衡量，實不宜侷限在財務效益面向，而應在計畫可行性與規劃報告中納入非使用效益評估，俾利完整化評估資訊，以協助決策者掌握計畫無形社會效益之參數資訊，遂行更有效的決策。

Non-use benefit is the crucial content of large-scale stadiums and gymnasiums' intangible social benefits. However, benefit valuation of domestic sport facility construction projects is still based on the view of financial feasibility; even Taipei Dome, the largest scale stadium construction, is also deficient in valuation of stadium's non-use value. Therefore, this study based on Ex ante evaluation used contingent valuation method (CVM) and payment card method to develop a questionnaire survey of Taipei citizens for Taipei Dome's non-use value. In empirical data analysis, this study used OLS, Ordered Probit and Ordered Logit to establish regression models of citizen's average willingness to pay (WTP) in order to estimate Taipei Dome's non-use value. The results of empirical analysis reveal that citizen's monthly income and cognition toward the discourse of bequest benefit are significant factors influencing his WTP of Taipei Dome's non-use value. In addition, the results also show predicted values of citizen's yearly average WTP: the OLS model’s estimate is NT$1364, the Ordered Probit model’s estimate is NT$1187, while the Ordered Logit model’s estimate is NT$2314. By using the Ordered Probit and Ordered Logit models’ estimates of WTP, this study calculated that Taipei Dome's future non-use value was approximately between NT$2,407,269,236 and NT$4,692,856,792. Namely, the Taipei Dome’s non-use value ranges approximately from NT$24 to NT$47 billion per year. To sum up, this study argues that non-use benefit valuation should be included in the feasibility and planning reports of domestic large-scale stadium and gymnasium projects concerning the public goods effects generated from those construction projects. In this way, the information integrity of proposed projects’ benefit valuation will be improved, and thus decision makers will be able to carry out more effective policies.