區段徵收案徵收範圍內外土地年報酬率與投資策略之分析

Abstract

近年來政府將土地利用效率較低之使用分區透過都市計畫變更規劃以區段徵收方式開發。舉凡新住宅社區開發、機場捷運興建，其用地多以區段徵收方式取得，行政院更於106年提出「前瞻基礎建設-軌道建設」，區段徵收勢必更加蓬勃發展。區段徵收開發完成後，土地使用分區之變更，因此土地價格常增值數倍，地主將獲得龐大利益，具高度投資可行性。然而徵收案時程曠日費時，故從徵收過程何階段切入進行土地投資以獲得最大之報酬率實為一值得探討之問題。 本研究利用計量經濟學的方法，選用新店中央新村北側附近地區區段徵收案和桃園機場捷運A10站地區區段徵收開發案進行實證研究。利用政府公開資訊取得土地交易相關數據，並根據文獻以特徵價格理論之基礎建立四個土地年報酬率模型，使用統計軟體EViews進行最小平方法迴歸檢定分析，分析模型內自變數之係數和顯著性。 最終得出之結論為1. 徵收過程重大事件中，細步計畫通過或發佈能造成階段之間徵收範圍內外年報酬率差異上漲百分比達到最大。投資人於細步計畫發佈和通過後，為最佳時間點將手中持有之徵收範圍內土地出售，以獲得最保守且理想之年報酬率。2. 區段徵收案難以帶動徵收範圍外臨近區域土地年報酬率，故不建議投資徵收範圍外但緊鄰徵收範圍之土地。在徵收範圍資訊不明確前，勿隨意投資不確定是否在徵收範圍內之土地。3. 若徵收案進度進展順利，投資徵收範圍內土地時應不必考慮土地使用分區之限制。 期望此研究成果能為欲投資區段徵收案之投資人，提供適當之投資策略，於相對準確之時間點切入進行土地投資，獲取最大報酬。

Taiwan government has developed the land of less use efficiency by rezoning the urban planning and zone expropriation in recent years. The areas of land development are mostly acquired by zone expropriation. Since the Executive Yuan proposed “Forward-Looking Infrastructure Development Program—Railway Development” in 2017, the future of zone expropriation will become brighter. After the accomplishment of zone expropriation, the land prices increase several times, which creates huge interests and investment feasibility. However, the processes of zone expropriation are time-consuming. Therefore, it is significant to decide when the best timing is to invest during the long processes. The thesis selected two cases of zone expropriation to conduct empirical research by Econometrics method and acquired land transaction data by openness of government information. Then according to Hedonic Price Theory, the author created the four models of annualized land return. After the regression analysis by the least square method in statistical software—EViews, the significance and coefficient of every independent variable will be analyzed. First conclusion was that during the processes of zone expropriation, the best timing to sell the land inside the scope of zone expropriation is right after the passing or promulgation of the urban detailed planning. It can acquire the most conservative and reasonable annualized land return. Second conclusion was that zone expropriation can’t enhance the annualized land return of surrounding area, so don’t invest the land near but outside the scope. Third conclusion was that as the investors invest the land inside scope of expropriation, they don’t need to consider the differences of the land use zoning.