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Title: | 氣候變遷對台灣高山群系之衝擊風險評估 Impact Risk Assessment on the High Mountain Vegetation Formation in Taiwan under Climate Change |
Authors: | Yi-Wei Huang 黃翊瑋 |
Advisor: | 邱祈榮(Chyi-Rong Chiou) |
Keyword: | 氣候變遷,溫量指數,風險評估,脆弱度,危害度,暴露度, Climate change,Warmth index,Risk Assessment,Vulnerability,Hazard,Exposure, |
Publication Year : | 2017 |
Degree: | 碩士 |
Abstract: | 本研究使用2009年臺灣現生天然植群圖與WorldClim氣候資料作為材料,使用IPCC報告中評估風險的脆弱度、危害度、暴露度三個指標。針對未來不同代表濃度途徑(Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs)的未來氣候情境進行風險的分析及探討。本研究選用了上部山地針葉林群系與亞高山針葉林群系兩個高山群系來進行風險評估。
在危害度的部分,使用溫量指數增幅比例作為危害度指標。其中亞高山針葉林群系的危害度較高。在脆弱度的部分,以適生指數來評估植群適合生存的環境的狀況,而亞高山針葉林分布的溫量範圍相對較窄,也造成了脆弱度較高的情況。在暴露度的部分,由於使用的單位方格面積較大,使得分布在山頭的亞高山針葉林出現暴露度較低的狀況。風險的部分,將三個指標相乘之後可得到結果,上部山地針葉林所遭受到的衝擊風險比亞高山針葉林高,亞高山針葉林在危害度與脆弱度都比上部山地針葉林風險更高,但是由於暴露度較低的緣故,使最後的風險值的部分,亞高山針葉林的整體風險低於亞高山針葉林,若是調整單位方格地大小,就會得到亞高山針葉林衝擊風險較高的結果。我們也可以得知,海拔對於增溫的影響甚鉅,也間接影響到氣候變遷的風險,而風險最高的地方主要以雪霸國家公園中的雪山主峰為主。 希望未來可以針對有這些群系覆蓋區域及衝擊風險較高的地方如;雪霸國家公園,進行長期觀測以及維護。未來可再與法規適宜性、災害潛勢等因子綜合,建立整體多面向的氣候變遷調適方案。 In this study, we used the 2009 Natural Vegetation map of Taiwan and WorldClim climate data as the materials, using the IPCC report to assess risk of three indicators, Vulnerability, Hazard and Exposure. To assess the risk on future climate scenarios of future with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). In this study, the upper mountain coniferous forest and the subalpine coniferous forest were used as target in the risk assessment. In the part of Hazard, use warmth index increase proportion as hazard index. The subalpine coniferous forest system is highly harmful. In the fragile part, the condition of the plant suitable for survival is evaluated with the appropriate index, while the distribution of the subalpine coniferous forest is relatively narrow, making the fragility index become high. Finally, the three indicators can be multiplied .The results of the upper mountain conifer forest suffered the impact risk than the subalpine coniferous forest because of the range of vulnerability which Alpine coniferous forest is in a high status, but the subalpine coniferous forest is low in Exposure, so the result of the risk is that the subalpine coniferous forest is lower than the upper coniferous forest. In the future, we expect long - term monitoring for areas where we found the most risky to minimize the impact of Climate change on Taiwan's local forest. We hope that a holistic multi - aspect Climate change adjustment program can be established. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/68725 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU201703744 |
Fulltext Rights: | 有償授權 |
Appears in Collections: | 森林環境暨資源學系 |
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ntu-106-1.pdf Restricted Access | 13.58 MB | Adobe PDF |
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