使用全民健保申報資料建構疾病傳播網路

Abstract

疾病傳播網路可以提供個人有效的資訊幫助保護自己，也可以幫助政府預防及控制感染疾病的擴散。目前有關傳染病的研究多侷限於小樣本、特定區域。本研究期望透過歷史醫療保險申報資料計算健康狀況時間序列，並以此建立疾病傳播網路。我們採用格蘭傑因果關係檢定以辨識目標群體與其他人之間潛在的傳播路徑。我們使用疾病傳播網路上鄰居的過去健保申報紀錄預測未來感染相似疾病事件來評估疾病網路的效果。與只使用個人過去歷史就醫紀錄的基準線模型相比，加入疾病傳播網路可以小幅度改善預測的表現。

Disease transmission network can provide important information for individuals to protect themselves and to support governments to prevent and control infectious diseases. Current studies on disease transmission network mostly focus on scenarios in small, confined areas. We propose to construct disease transmission network using health status time series computed based on health insurance claims. We adopted Granger causality tests to identify potential links from the health status time series from all pairs between target groups and other individuals. We evaluated our approach by predicting future health care seeking activates for similar diseases based on past health care seeking activates of neighbors in the disease network. Compared to baseline models that use only personal historical data, including the estimated transmission network can improve prediction performance.