以IEEE-14測試系統探討輸配電網路在強風條件下之恢復時間與損失能量

Abstract

最近幾年由於全球暖化，世界各地都出現極端天氣，再加上2011年發生福島核電廠事故後，許多國家意識到核能發電的危險性，紛紛要求廢除核能，而其電力不足的部分將由可再生能源取代。對此許多已開發國家的電力傳輸網路勢必要做一些改變，其目標為：(1)再生能源所占總發電的比例增加後，需要克服供電不穩的問題；(2)為提供更可靠的服務，並增加安全性和效益，必須降低電力系統部分區域失效或受到惡意攻擊時之傷害，改善系統對環境之適應能力。由於現行電力系統的可靠度與可利用度指標都沒有把極端天氣納入考量，所以本論文中，我們將極端天氣之隨機模型與基於直流功率流假設和適當的再分配策略之可靠連鎖失效模擬結合，進行電力系統可靠度與可利用度相關研究與探討。其中在電網之動態描述中，本研究特別引入恢復模型，反映工作人員在極端天氣下調度電力有可能遇到之發展情況。本研究將利用量身訂作的連鎖蒙地卡羅方案求解問題，探討電力系統受到極端天氣事件時之可靠度與可利用度，最後用IEEE14-Bus電力系統之測試範例進行驗證。研究結果發現，雖然極端天氣出現的時間並不長，但會對電力系統之可靠度與可利用度帶來極大的影響。

The power transmission networks in many countries must be changed. They meet the difficulty of stochastically fluctuating power contributions due to the connections of more and more renewable power generation units. To provide reliable service and increase the safety and profit, they must also decrease their vulnerabilities to failures or malicious attacks and improve their resilience. Because of the above facts, a cascading failure simulation model based on the direct current (DC) power flow approximation and a proportional re-dispatch strategy combining with a stochastic model for the occurrences of extreme weather is proposed in this thesis. The description of dynamics of the network is completed by the introduction of a novel restoration model accounting for the operating conditions that a repair crew may encounter during an extreme weather event. The model is solved by a customized sequential Monte Carlo scheme for quantitative investigation of the impact of extreme weather events on the performance, especially the reliability and availability of power grid. The approach is demonstrated with reference to the test case of the IEEE14-bus power transmission network. The result shows that though the extreme weather occurs rarely, it has a huge impact on the reliability and availability of the power grid.