延後退休年齡之一般均衡分析—以臺灣為例

Abstract

世界各國的社會逐漸顯現人口結構高齡化的特性，我們直接可預期會發生的問題是退休人數將不斷增加。如果法定退休年齡過低或有多數都選擇提早退休的情形的話，將造成勞動供給短缺，許多國家因此紛紛提出提高法定退休年齡的政策方向。延後退休年齡或許也可以成為我國未來大退休潮發生的因應措施，本文將參考Peng & Mai(2013)一文之研究架構，以臺灣可計算一般均衡模型及其資料庫，實證分析延後退休年齡對於臺灣整體勞動力供給與總體經濟影響效果。 實證結果顯示，在2016年至2040年間勞動供給與實質GDP因總工作年齡人口數減少而呈現下降趨勢，但延後退休年齡比不延後的下降幅度小。因為延後退休年齡將使得退休人數減少，擴大工作年齡人口範圍，且提升勞動參與率，勞動力供給因此增加，將提升生產力並降低人口老化帶來的經濟衝擊。 不過由於人們對於調整習以為常的退休年齡往往需要較長的適應期，本文建議延後退休年齡政策的推動宜早不宜遲，同時應採取細緻完整的措施來進行，包括採取抑制提早退休、彈性退休及漸進式退休的方式，才能有效發揮延後退休年齡政策所帶來的效益。

Most countries’ societies gradually show the characteristics of the aging population structure.We can directly expect the problem is the increasing number of retirees.If the statutory retirement age is too low or much early retirement happen,it will result in labor supply shortage.Therefore,many countries have proposed to raise the statutory retirement age . The delayed retirement age policy may also be the solution when retirement tide occurs in Taiwan in the future. This paper refers to the study structure of Peng & Mai (2013) , and based on the empirical analysis of GEMTEE model database, we can get the effect of delayed retirement age on the overall labor supply and macro economy in Taiwan. The empirical results show in 2016 to 2040 ,and the labor supply and the real GDP show a downward trend due to the decrease in the total working age population.However, the drop of the delayed retirement age is smaller than non-delayed.It’s because the delayed of retirement age will reduce the number of retirees and expand the working age population range.Besides,it will result in increasing labor participation rates and therefore increasing labor supply,improving productivity,and reducing the economic impact of population aging . Because people need a longer period of adaptation for the adjustment of the delayed retirement age, this paper suggests that we should promote the delayed retirement age policy as soon as possible.Besides,it should be followed by delicate and complete measures, including suppressing early retirement, taking flexible retirement, and taking progressive retirement in order to make the delayed retirement policy effectively play the benefits .