金融危機前後之貨幣數量與貨幣乘數

Abstract

全球性金融危機前後，歐美地區與亞洲地區在貨幣數量、基數與乘數表現不同，歐美地區貨幣基數大增，但貨幣乘數大跌，而貨幣數量上升；亞洲地區貨幣基數上升，但貨幣乘數小幅下跌，而貨幣數量上升，因此本文分析比較區美與亞洲地區乘數的不同。 本文橫向比較歐美與亞洲地區共八個國家，縱向比較貨幣數量、貨幣基數、貨幣乘數、通貨淨額比與實際準備率等五個變數的走勢變化。本文使用「貢獻率」計算實際準備率及通貨淨額比對貨幣乘數的貢獻率，並以表格與百分比圓柱堆疊圖方式表達。 結論是2007第三季至2008第四季歐美地區貨幣乘數大幅下降，主要來自於實際準備率大幅上升及其他因素；亞洲地區貨幣乘數小幅下降，主要來自於實際準備率小幅上升、通貨淨額比微幅上升或區間內波動，及其他因素。2009第一季至2010第三季歐美地區貨幣乘數呈現波動後微升，主要來自於實際準備下跌；亞洲地區貨幣乘數也呈現波動後微升，主要來自於實際準備率下跌、通貨淨額比下跌或區間內波動。

During the period of the global financial crisis, the trend of the money supply, money base and multiplier between European ,American areas and Asia areas were quite different. The money multipliers dropped dramatically in European and American areas, but in contrast, they went down moderately in Asia. That is so interesting that I analyze it by comparing eight areas and five variables, and adopting the method “contribution rate”. Contribution rate would make us see more presicely how much the reserve rate and the currency ratio affect the change of the multiplier. In this thesis, I apply the line charts to express the change of the money supply, money multiplier, reserve ratio and currency ratio. The100% stacked column charts are employed to present the contribution rate. The result shows that the main reason why the multiplier descended a lot in European and American areas is because their reserve ratio ascends quite a lot. However in Asia, the multiplier fell gently since their reserve ratio rose mildly and the currency ratio went up a little.