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Title: | 應用引力模型探討中國疑似非法原木貿易之研究 Applying Gravity Model to Study on the Trade of Illegal Logs in China |
Authors: | 林幸樺 |
Advisor: | 邱祈榮(Chyi-Rong Chiou) |
Keyword: | 關引力模型,非法木材,中國,原木貿易, gravity model,illegal logs,China,timber trade, |
Publication Year : | 2013 |
Degree: | 碩士 |
Abstract: | 非法木材的砍伐是森林議題中相當重要的一項,非法木材尤其集中在開發中國家,不僅造成當地毀林的問題,更讓該地區經濟受損。當今國際貿易盛行,非法木材容易流入貿易市場,其中貿易統計與國際報告一再指出,中國為非法木材主要目的地,這些原木很可能再度以加工商品的形式出口到世界各地,擾亂國際木質產品的行情。中國當局若解決非法木材流入國內的問題,不僅能有效提升國內原料品質,且為全球林業永續發展的目標有所貢獻。
本文先估算中國近年疑似非法原木的進口量,再參考引力模型的原理,對於2000年至2011年疑似非法原木流入中國的主要因素進行實證分析與探討,最後試著提出抑止疑似非法原木貿易的策略。 受限於非法木材流通乃秘密行為,所以採用貿易統計資料差異法估算15國與中國的疑似非法原木流量。實證結果顯示,出口國的人均GDP與流量有正向關係,而中國的人均GDP則相反,與流量呈現反向關係。另外,出口國人口成長率越高,疑似非法原木的流量也越高;而出口國的清廉指數、可耕地面積比例、距離因子以及國家森林計畫的執行都是抑制疑似非法原木貿易流量的因子。從區域的角度而言,俄羅斯與亞太地區對中國的非法原木流量最多,非洲地區雖然相對較少但卻有成長趨勢。掌握重要的影響因素可以發現流量主要取決於出口國國內的特性,建議中國應當留意來自俄羅斯的原木合法性,而各原木出口國應當藉由提升國內治理來緩解當今森林非法砍伐的問題。 Illegal logging is a very important issue for forestry. Illegal logging particularly occurs and exists in developing countries. It not only causes deforestation, but also impacts the region's economy. International trade is so common nowadays, which makes the illegally logged timber easily flow into the trade markets over the world. Many statistical data and international reports show that China is a major destination for illegally logged timber. The illegally logged timber is likely to be exported after processed. The goods disrupt international quotes of wood products. Not only the quality of raw materials in China but also the sustainable development of global forestry will be improved if China resolves the problem. Firstly, the article estimates the imported volumes of suspicious illegal timber in China during 2000-2011, and then refer to the principle of trade gravity model to analysis and discuss the main factors. Then some strategies are proposed to retain the suspected illegal timber trade. Because logging and trading of illegal timber are secret acts, the flow of illegally logged timber from 15 countries into China is estimated by calculating trade data discrepancies. The results show that the suspected illegally timber flowing into China is closely related to per capita GDP of the exporters, and the relationship is positive. However, the relationship with China's per capita GDP is negative. Further more, the higher growth rate of population in exporters, and more numerous suspected illegal timber flowing into China. Corruption Perceptions Index, the proportion of arable land, the distance factor as well as the implementation of the National Forest Plan are inhibiting factors of trade flows of suspected illegal timber. From the viewpoint of region, the flow of Russia and the Asia-Pacific region is most numerous. Africa region has less volumes but its trend is growing. The important factors influencing the flow depend on the characteristics of the exporters. China should pay attention to the legitimacy of timber imported from Russia, and the timber exporters should alleviate the problem of domestic illegal logging by enhancing their domestic governance. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/62756 |
Fulltext Rights: | 有償授權 |
Appears in Collections: | 森林環境暨資源學系 |
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ntu-102-1.pdf Restricted Access | 1.48 MB | Adobe PDF |
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