生鮮蘋果之世界貿易引力模型實證分析

Abstract

Abstract This thesis explores the use of a gravity model (GM) to analyze the determinants of trade for specific products. Using a panel data for the twenty most important trader countries on ten years (2001-2010), fresh apple is used as an empirical example. The results indicate that the incomes of the importing and exporting countries are positive and significant. The distance between countries and the exporting country productions are also important to explain the variability of bilateral trade flows of fresh apple. We also noted that the tariff have not yielded the desired effect in this trade. The results also show the importance of language and weather in the trade. Borders although insignificant also were positive. Finally, we noted that regional trade agreements had a negative (but not significant) effect on bilateral trade flows. We have also seen that all the effects of trade diversion are negative in nature (NAFTAD, EUD). Key Words: fresh apple; bilateral trade; gravity model; RTA; weather; tariffs; panel data.