國際糧價上漲對非洲低度開發國家的經濟影響分析

Abstract

This thesis is concerned with the impact of global food price increase on Africa LDCs. For the first time since the end of 1970’s, the international price of most commodities food reached a level in 2008 that had not been seen. Food commodity prices are projected to remain on higher level over the next decade, supported by firm demand, weather conditions, slowing growth in global production, and expected high price of crude oil. This perspective draws a particular attention to both significant challenges to addressing global food insecurity and the major opportunities for food and agricultural producers arising from the higher average prices projected over the coming decade. The overall objective of this thesis is to conduct economic research on the implications of future global food price increase on 28 African LDCs and discuss some policy instruments to address periods of high food price. The methodology applied in this study is based on the Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact (CAPRI) modeling system. The market module of CAPRI is a comparative-static, deterministic, partial, spatial, global equilibrium model for agricultural products and covers 47 primary and secondary agricultural products and 77 countries in 40 trade blocks. The result tends to support that Africa LDCs countries are adversely affected in term of overall welfare when maize, rice and wheat prices increase, mainly due to a reduction in consumer surplus, agricultural income and tariff revenues. The sectorial effect analysis reveals that total demand including both human consumption and import drops in the wheat and rice market, but increases in the maize market. In addition, Africa LDCs are predicted to be more negatively affected than the other trade block such as Africa-Rest, Nigeria, South-Africa and Ethiopia.