一位實踐型的藍隊學者：金德芳中國研究的階段性演進

Abstract

既有文獻皆以研究紅隊學者居多，同時以紅隊學者來認識藍隊將導致一定程度上之誤解。本文透過研究藍隊學者金德芳來理解此位學者的中國觀與思維脈絡，同時透過文獻回顧簡要理解各藍隊成員關懷的重點與定位，期能使外界能擺脫對藍隊之刻板印象並真正認識藍隊觀點。此外，透過建構「淺藍」與「深藍」指標加以判定藍隊成員是否能夠再區分以及金德芳在不同時代、不同議題上是否具有轉折。 透過訪談與文獻回顧，研究發現金德芳對於中國的觀點透過不斷實踐的過程加以形塑，亦即根據時代的背景與議題的變化而調整，這與她自我定位為淺藍若合符節，也表示她有更大的彈性可以配合時空條件而採取深藍的立場，而這樣的變化的確正在出現。此外過往紅藍隊之區分仍有討論之空間，透過不同藍隊成員之文獻與金德芳相關文獻加以比較後，本文認為藍隊確實能夠再進行簡單的區分而非僅流於單純二分法，同時也代表同一社群之成員在對中國看法上並非完全相同。過往紅藍隊的分類法易造成許多不同論點難以突顯出來，而本文在透過訪問金德芳與分析其文獻後發現這樣的現象確實存在。因此二分法雖有助於快速理解各方論點，但往往易流於將某派專家學者的看法歸為一致。

In past literatures, lots of those researched red team and used it to know the blue, but it was easy to misunderstand the arguments of the blue team. This dissertation is focused on June Teufel Dreyer’s, who is a blue team scholar, China’s study and thinking, and uses literature review to understand the arguments of blue team experts in China policy simultaneously. Through this means, this dissertation hopes to break the stereotype of blue team. In addition, this dissertation constructs indexes about “deep blue” and “light blue” to judge that the blue team if can distinguish it or not, and use it to understand that June Teufel Dreyer’s perspectives in different era and issues. Through literatures and interview, the results found that Dreyer’s perspectives had been shaped by a practicing process. In other words, she has adjusted herself according to historical context and issues, if it accords with her self-positioning as a “light blue”, then it means that she will have more flexibility to be a “deep blue”, and this change is emerging. Moreover, discrimination between red team and blue team still need to be discussed. By comparing, blue team can be distinguished into “light blue” and “deep blue”, it means that the dichotomy of China policy experts isn’t really right, and perspectives in the same group are not all the same. The dichotomy of red team and blue team has made that the different perspectives hard to emerge, and this phenomenon actually exists when researched Dreyer’s perspectives. Therefore, dichotomy may let us understand perspectives both sides, but it is easy to view perspectives of one side as the same.