外在事件對臺灣商業銀行手續費收入之影響

Abstract

臺灣銀行業競爭激烈，促使銀行產品組合走向多元化，再加上2008年金融海嘯後，全球進入低利率時代，銀行對於傳統存放款業務的依賴已逐漸減少，而手續費收入的重要性逐年上升；另一方面，投資人也在低利率時代尋求預期報酬率較高的投資管道，例如基金或投資型保單等理財工具，而這些正好是銀行手續費收入的重要來源。在所有銀行都想搶佔手續費收入這塊市場的情形下，也不能忽略手續費收入的波動性可能帶來的風險，因此本研究採用了2005年至2016年之臺灣地區銀行(包含本國銀行與外商銀行在臺子行)的資料，欲分析包含金融、經濟、法規及政策等多面向的重大事件對銀行手續費收入的影響，以期望提升銀行與主管機關對手續費收入波動的關注，作為日後風險控管的參考方針，甚至能為可能發生的手續費收入變動做因應準備。 本研究實證結果顯示，外在事件發生時，銀行手續費收入確實會產生波動，而且手續費收入的變動多是以客戶端的需求面驅動，尤其是在金融市場發生負面事件時，投資人的風險趨避心態易使其對從事具風險性的投資活動的意願降低，進而使銀行手續費收入全面性地減少。而在預期對銀行手續費收入有正面影響的事件中，則是以法規開放的事件具有全面且顯著的正向影響。 最後，本研究也發現持續時間較長的事件通常剛爆發的時候不會是對手續費收入影響最大的時候，且本研究也比較了不同的觀察時間，事件前後三個月的手續費收入變化並不如六個月的變化顯著，代表多數事件的影響需要一段時間的發酵，因此若未來重大事件(即將)發生時，主管機關與銀行可預見手續費收入將有變化，以即早進行風險控管。

The highly competitive banking industry and the worldwide ultra-low interest rates reduce the importance of interest income but increase that of fee income for banks in Taiwan. Investors are eager for investments with yields higher than deposits, such as mutual funds and investment-linked insurances, which are the main sources of banks’ fee income. Therefore, fee income has become an important business that every bank would like to develop. However, while making profits from the fee-income business, banks should not ignore its high volatility. By analyzing the impact of external events on the fee income of 43 Taiwanese banks between 2005 to 2016, this thesis aims to raise the awareness of banks and the authority that the fee income can fluctuate significantly and its risk should be carefully managed. The empirical results in this thesis reveal that external events do affect bank’s fee income, and the fluctuation is usually driven by the demand side. Particularly, when risk-off events break out, investors avoid risky investment, leading to an overall decrease in banks’ fee income. By contrast, when positive events occur, such as a loosening of regulation, banks’ fee income increases substantially. Last but not least, the results based on a six-month window are much more significant than those based on a three-month window, which implies that the effects of most events on banks’ fee income emerge gradually as time passes. As a result, when the events happen, banks can expect the fluctuation of fee income and be prepared earlier.