台灣溫室氣體減量政策工具之研究-主要部門能源使用之實證分析

Abstract

過度消耗化石能源使得二氧化碳大量排放是溫室氣體效應產生的主因，因此，為了減緩這現象，台灣政府提出了減碳的具體政策工具，分別為能源稅條例草案以及溫室氣體減量法草案。本研究主要的目的即為透過實證方式了解這兩項政策工具對減碳的效應。 首先，本研究蒐集能源消費與二氧化碳排放的實證資料，其中包含台灣地區自1991年到2010年能源部門、工業部門與運輸部門所使用的煤、石油與天然氣消耗量。其次，透過多元迴歸模型分析來量化與檢證個別部門不同能源消費與該部門二氧化碳排放量之關聯性。 研究結果顯示，在能源部門裡多使用天然氣會大量減低二氧化碳的排放量，但是使用煤與石油這兩類能源則是會增加二氧化碳排放量；同時該結果也透露出能源部門裡使用石油隨著時間越近，能源效率反而越來越差。而在工業部門裡，石油的消費量與二氧化碳排放量呈現負相關性。工業部門在煤與石油這兩項能源的使用上所產生的二氧化碳排放比例都比能源部門低上許多。 因此，我們建議政策部門可以能源稅條例草案為基礎，針對能源部門設定額外的二氧化碳總量管制比例，一旦該部門使用煤與石油超過管制量，則廠商應負擔較高額的稅率，相反的，若能源部門多使用天然氣及其他清潔能源，且將二氧化碳排放量控制在總量管制下的合理比例，則該部門可享受較優惠的石油與天然氣課稅比例。

A high level consumption of fossil fuel emits a huge amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) which causes serious greenhouse effect, therefore, energy saving and carbon reduction becomes an important policy in Taiwan to mitigate the Greenhouse effect which causes environment problem. Taiwan’s government proposed two acts to prevent high level consumption of fossil fuel, Energy Tax Regulations Draft and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act Draft. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of the two policy measures. First, we collect empirical data of energy consumptions and carbon dioxide emissions of coal, petroleum and natural gas used by energy, industrial and transportation sectors in Taiwan from 1991 to 2010. Second, we apply regression analysis to examine and quantify the relationship between energy consumption and Carbon dioxide emissions by energy types and sectors respectively. The study results indicate that the use of natural gas reduces emissions of carbon dioxide sharply, but the use of coal and petroleum increase the emissions significantly which implies the worse energy efficiency of petroleum gradually in energy sector. In industrial sector the consumption of coal and petroleum has a negative relationship slightly with carbon dioxide emissions. Compared with industry sector, using coal and petroleum will cause more Carbon dioxide emissions in energy sector. Thus, we suggest that the government can set an extra total capacity control level of carbon dioxide emissions in energy sector which based on Energy Tax Regulations Draft, then, levies a higher tax rate for coal and petroleum and lower rate for natural gas to promote clean energy.