中國鋼鐵產業結構與主要廠商發展策略

Abstract

鋼鐵產業屬國家的重要基礎產業，中國鋼鐵產業與其相關產業，占中國的GDP值將近10%，而其粗鋼產量自1996年即超越日本成為全球最大鋼鐵產國，於2012年占全球產量46.3%。但在2012年整體的獲利急轉直下，全國產能過剩超過2億噸，平均產業利潤僅剩0.04%；全球鋼鐵產業也因此面臨需求不振，產能過剩，貿易保護興起的現象。 本研究首先探討中國鋼鐵產業在過去三十年發展的歷史，並歸納在進入2000年後的爆炸性成長動因，包括(1)前期工業化使成長條件成熟，(2)經濟發展的需求增加帶動鋼鐵暴利，(3)地方政府在經濟發展與首長以GDP成長考核方式下，大幅度鼓勵新的鋼廠成立。然而，湧入的新進鋼廠、落後產能無法順利退出市場，加上減緩的鋼鐵消費成長速度，造成產能過剩，鋼鐵產業由盛迅速轉衰，中國鋼鐵產業結構將面臨新一波轉型的需要。 本研究依循SCP典範、及麥可波特的五力分析架構，發現中國鋼鐵產業在產業內的競爭態勢、對上游供應商的議價力、對中、低階產品的客戶議價力，均不利於業內廠商的利潤創造，使得整體產業利潤變差。 本研究並據以提出產業關鍵成功因素包括有: (1)降低產業內競爭，包括：進行策略性兼併重組以提高集中度、維持資本投資以確保技術與成本領先、(2)節流開源以降低供應商議價力、(3)降低客戶議價力，包括：維持研發與差異化；鞏固大客戶；向下垂直整合；開發電子商務與海外市場、(4)發揮品牌優勢，與 (5)發展相關多角化，以降低系統風險影響。 本研究最後針對上海寶鋼集團進行個案分析，發掘其核心競爭能力為(1)差異化定位、(2)客戶整合能力、(3)持續的研發、(4)品牌資源；本研究並剖析其發展策略與關鍵成功因素(KSF)的相關性，發現寶鋼(1)進行策略性兼併，分別獲得西北地區的市場與礦源，並投資廣東省湛江港以獲得東南地區與海外市場，縮短進口鐵礦源距離；(2)參與鐵礦開發，擴大進貨來源；(3)持續研發以保持差異化，垂直整合下游，開發電子商務平台與第三方支付系統，擴大海外市場；(4)發揮品牌優勢與(5)結合相關多角化的發展:其發展策略與KSF顯然高度相關。 據此，我們提出對於寶鋼持續發展的建議，包括:在兼併重組的過程中，以企業為主體考量，要克服與地方政府的利稅分配、經濟就業與主控權問題；以多角化分散風限，需考慮獨立性與退場機制；培養兼具國際化經營能力與認同寶鋼本土文化的經營人才。

Steel Industry is a fundamental industry in every country. China steel and its related industries collectively represent 10% of GDP and have replaced Japan as the largest crude steel production country worldwide since 1996, and 46.3% of worldwide crude steel production in 2012. However, its industry average profit was only 0.04% in 2012 due to slow demand growth and excess capacity. The global steel industry therefore faced declined demands, excess capacity, and trade barriers. This study reviews the developmental history and identifies key factors to the explosive development in 2000s, including (1) the pre-industrialization helps the continuously fast growth, (2) strong demands gave excesses profits, (3) the local government’s strong encouragement due to promotion system. When the demand-growth is slow down, the oversupply leads to poor profitability. Based on the S-C-P paradigm and Five-Forces Model, the study found that the industry is unfavorable to creating positive profitability. We also concludes the KSFs, including: (1) strategic M&A (2) reduce the ore dependency. (3) develop differentiation and vertical integration (4) leverage brand and (5) develop relevant diversification strategy to reduce the systematic risks. We then take Baosteel Group as a case study and found that its core competences incldue (1) differentiation preposition, (2) the integration of customer needs, (3) continuously R&D, (4) strong brand, which are all related to the KSF of the industry. We therefore provide several suggestions to the case company, including: in case of initiating M&A, negotiating with the local government to maximize the firm’s benefits despite the issues of tax, economic growth and domination, diversifying to other businesses in order to reduce to overall risk while maintaining exit mechanism, growing up talents with both international operation capabilities and fitting Baosteel cultures.