1994~2012年臺北市長及總統副總統選舉 臺北市政黨選票變化分析

Abstract

本論文為研究自1994年至2012年臺北市十次重要的選舉，包括五次市長選舉、五次總統副總統選舉臺灣的主要政黨國民黨、民進黨和從國民黨分裂出去的泛藍政黨，在全臺北市以及十二個行政區的得票情形，以了解藍綠政黨在臺北市的選票結構。 為深入探討，本論文除依據歷次選舉結果統計做量化分析外，更設定八項議題進行深度訪談做質化分析，共訪問了市長候選人、市議員、資深輔選人員及政治評論員等十七位受訪者，再將量化分析和質化分析綜合歸納，以研究解析論文所設定之議題，了解臺北市藍綠選票基本盤勢、泛藍分裂與棄保效應、各行政區選民投票傾向與差異等問題，對長達十八年來，臺北市首長選舉所形成的政黨選票結構和選民投票行為，做完整而深刻之研究。 在研究結果上，本論文有以下結論： 一、臺北市選票結構為：泛藍選票大於國民黨選票，國民黨選票大於民進黨選票。綜合平均五次臺北市長選舉，泛藍平均得票率為57.57％，國民黨平均得票率為50.12％，民進黨平均得票率為42.03％；五次總統副總統選舉，臺北市泛藍平均得票率為65.50％，國民黨平均得票率為47.65％，民進黨平均得票率為36.39％。 二、若將臺北市長選舉和總統副總統選票做比較，由上述得票率可知，臺北市民進黨和國民黨皆是市長選票大於總統選票，但泛藍則是總統選票大於市長選票。因此是「市長綠」大於「總統綠」，「市長藍」大於「總統藍」，「總統泛藍」大於「市長泛藍」。 三、臺北市藍綠板塊和全國各縣市平均的藍綠板塊相比差距不大。自1996年至2012年總統副總統大選，國民黨全國平均得票率為47.71％，在臺北市平均得票率為47.65％，差距為0.24％；泛藍平均全國得票率為60.33％，在臺北市平均得票率為63.50％，差距為3.17％。 四、早期選舉當泛藍分裂，有兩位或兩組以上候選人競爭市長或總統副總統時，容易造成民進黨當選，1994年市長選舉和2000年總統副總統選舉皆如此，但臺北市選民經過兩次教訓後不再重蹈覆轍，在投票時會採取自動棄保策略，因此棄保效應已逐漸內化為藍軍選民投票的準則，1998年、2006年市長選舉，2012年總統副總統選舉，藍軍雖然分裂，但在選民自動棄保下，仍然集中選票讓國民黨候選人當選，民進黨再也難以靠國民黨分裂而當選。 五、臺北市十二個行政區選票結構各有不同，大同區為民進黨得票率最高的區，五屆市長選舉平均可得到56.20％的選票，是十二區中唯一得票率過半數的區；五屆總統副總統大選大同區平均可得到48.88％的選票，但仍未過半數。文山區則為國民黨得票最高的區，五屆市長選舉平均得到57.42％的選票，五屆總統副總統大選則平均可得到52.10％的選票。而泛藍選票在文山區則五屆市長平均可得到67.15％的選票，五屆總統副總統選舉則平均可得到72.01％的選票。 六、臺北市各行政區選民投票傾向之差異，和歷史淵源、人口結構有關，一般而言傳統社區較為偏綠，新興社區較為偏藍，因此臺北市最綠的區是大同區，最藍的區是文山區；大同、士林、萬華、中山是民進黨較具優勢的行政區；文山、大安、信義、中正則為泛藍和國民黨較具優勢的區。

This paper studies the ten important elections in Taipei City between 1994 to 2012. The elections include five mayoral elections and five Presidential and Vice Presidential elections. The major political parties include Kuomintang (KMT), Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and the pan-blue political parties that withdraw from the KMT. This paper studied the voting situation of the entire Taipei City and the twelve administrative districts to understand the voting structure of the blue and green political parties in Taipei City. To investigate and explore further, in addition to conduct quantitative statistical analysis based on the previous election results, the researchers also conducted in-depth interviews on eight categories of issues and perform qualitative analysis. They interviewed seventeen respondents including candidates for mayors, city councilors, senior campaign officers, and political commentators. Then, the researchers conducted a comprehensive integration of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis to study and analyze the research topics of this paper. The topics include understanding the basic voting potential of the pan-blue supporters and pan-green supporters, the pan-blue split and the effect of using the voting strategy of giving up a rook to save the king, and the problems of voting inclination and differences of the various administrating district voters. This paper conducted a comprehensive and in-depth research on the political party voting structure and voters’ voting behaviors resulted from the Taipei Mayor Election for the past eighteen years. The results of this paper showed the following conclusions: 1.The Taipei City voting structure showed that pan-blue votes are greater than the KMT votes; the KMT votes are greater than DPP votes. 2.The effect of using the voting strategy of giving up a rook to save the king has gradually been internalized and became the standard rule for the blue political party voters. The examples occurred in the 1998 and 2006 Taipei Mayor elections and 2012 Presidential and Vice Presidential election. Although the blue political party splits, the voters, on their own, used the voting strategy of giving up a rook to save the king. As a result, votes were pulled toward the KMT candidates and the KMT candidates won the elections. 3.The difference in voter’s voting inclinations of the various administrative districts of the Taipei City is related to history and population structure. In general, traditional communities are inclined toward green and emerging communities are inclined toward blue. Thus, the district with the most green supporters is Datong District and the district with the most blue supporters is Wenshan District.