上市公司現金減資和彌補虧損減資效應之分析

Abstract

本文探討現金減資及虧損減資對公司股價和營運績效的影響。在股價的影響方面，以標準化異常報酬(AR)、標準化累積異常報酬(CAR)，以及買進持有異常報酬(BHAR)進行t檢定來衡量減資事件對公司股價所造成的影響。在營運績效的影響方面，以資產報酬率、股東權益報酬率、銷貨淨利率、營運現金流量對總資產之比率、稅前息前折舊攤銷前淨利對總資產之比率、資產周轉率、自由現金流量對總資產之比率及負債比率八項財務指標進行t檢定，來衡量減資前後公司營運績效的變化。 本文發現，現金減資雖然具有正向的宣告效果，但效果並不持久，而在買進持有異常報酬法的衡量下，在現金減資宣告後的一個月，股價出現了顯著負向異常報酬的現象；虧損減資具有負向的宣告效果，且股價的負向異常報酬至少長達半年，另外在買進持有異常報酬法的衡量下，於虧損減資宣告日起算一年，市場對股價的負向反應並無顯著提升；兩種減資在宣告前，股價皆有提前反映的跡象。 公司執行現金減資對營運績效無實質影響；公司執行虧損減資有助於資產報酬率、股東權益報酬率及稅前息前折舊攤銷前淨利對總資產之比率的提升，但主要反映在減資後的第一年與第三年，減資後的第二年營運績效無明顯提升的現象。可能原因有二：一是執行虧損減資的公司，多半是管理階層預期未來一年營運情況可能好轉，所以減資後一年的整體營運績效表現優於減資前一年；二是虧損減資後仍經營不善的公司，下市時間集中在減資後第二年年初至第三年期末間，所以減資後第二年期末營運績效整體平均遭到下市公司的拖累。能存續到減資後第三年期末的公司，整體營運績效仍優於減資前一年。

This study investigates the influence on stock prices and operating performance when a company returns its capital to share holders (return of capital) or writes down its capital to cover loss (capital reduction to cover loss). The influence on stock prices is analyzed using Abnormal Returns (AR), Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR), and Buy-and-Hold Abnormal Returns (BHAR). The influence on operating performance is analyzed using t-test on the changes of eight financial ratios, namely, return on assets (ROA), returns on equity (ROE), net profit to sales ratio, operating cash flow to total assets ratio, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to total assets ratio, asset turnover, free cash flow to total assets ratio and liability ratio after capital reduction. This study finds a positive announcement effect for return of capital. However, the effect does not last long. There are negative abnormal returns on stock prices, measured by BHAR, one month after return of capital is announced. When capital is reduced to cover loss, there is a negative announcement effect and the abnormal returns last for six months at least. Moreover, we find that there are abnormal returns on stock prices prior to the announcement of both capital reductions. Return of capital has no influence on operating performance. Capital reduction to cover loss has positive effects on the growth of return on assets, returns on equity, and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to total assets ratio in the first and the third year after capital reduction. This study postulates two possible reasons for this finding. First, when a company writes down its capital to cover loss, its executives expect the operating performance to be improved in the following year. If the expectation is correct, the operating performance in the year after capital reduction will be better than that in the year before capital reduction. Second, those companies that are unable to improve their operating performance after capital reduction, are de-listed in the second year or the third year after capital reduction in general. As a result, the average operating performance for all the sample companies in the second year will be affected negatively by the poor performance of those companies that are de-listed subsequently. As most of the companies with poor performance have already been de-listed in the third year after capital reduction, the average operating performance for all the sample companies this year will be better than in the year before capital reduction.