後米羅塞維奇時代塞爾維亞的經濟轉型

Abstract

當東歐國家採震盪療法經濟轉型，南斯拉夫聯邦共和國下的塞爾維亞卻遲至2000年才開始。90年代來不論是採取震盪療法或是漸進主義 後共國家都欲遠離社會主義轉向市場經濟體制。在這股經濟轉型潮流中的「後進者」塞爾維亞 在2000年10月後進入後米羅塞維奇(post-Milosevic)時代並於2012年3月取得歐盟候選國資格 。這個90年代飽受戰亂、國際制裁而停滯的經濟改革社會主義國家在2012年竟取得歐盟候選國資格，究竟從經濟改革停滯到取得歐盟候選國資格間，經濟轉型的進程為何?又影響其進程的內外因素有哪些?本文首論研究動機與目的並回顧相關文獻，再論經濟轉型背景內涵包括米羅塞維奇時代與2000年以降五任政府的政經背景如何造成市場經濟制度抉擇；再次，論述後米羅塞維奇時代的經濟型轉型進程包括私有化、自由化與穩定化；最後整理出影響轉型內外因素包括內戰、憲政制度、(塞-蒙關係)、民族主義、政府鬥爭行政效能低、裙帶關係; 外在因素包括國際金融組織、EU、科索沃問題、前南斯拉夫國際刑事法庭合作與08金融海嘯。最終以EBRD轉型指標做結。

The collapse of Soviet Union marks not only the victory of capitalism, but also ushered in the economic transition in several post-communist countries. While, the Republic of Serbia, then in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia(1992-2003), did not jump on that bandwagon. Not until the collapse of Milosevic regime in October 2000 can Serbia kick off economic transition. In 1990's Serbia was ravaged by wars and sanctions were also put in place. Serbia has recovered its foot, moving toward market economy during the past decade. In March 2012, she was identified as a potential candidate for EU membership. The article will focus on the following issues: footprint of Serbia's economic transition, economic transition's political and economic background in 5 governments after 2000, its external and internal factors, and also evaluation.