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標題: | 以干預模型探討交通政策對機車交通事故影響 Explore Effect of Policies on Motorcycle Traffic Accidents by Intervention Model |
作者: | Yu-Ting Liao 廖昱婷 |
指導教授: | 許添本(Tien-Pen Hsu) |
關鍵字: | 機車,交通安全,交通事故,ARIMA,干預分析,結構性變化, Motorcycle,Traffic Safety,Traffic Accidents,ARIMA,Intervention Model,Structural Change, |
出版年 : | 2020 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 根據交通部統計,交通事故涉入者以機車為大宗,顯示機車交通安全問題之重要性。多年來,相關單位均對此實施了多項以改善交通安全環境為主旨的政策與措施,若能分析歷年相關政策對機車交通事故的影響,應可作為施政的輔助資訊。 交通事故資料特性適合以時間序列方法進行研究,本研究首先以 2001 年至 2019 年資料進行時間序列分解法及結構性變動點分析,作為研究資料特性的初步分析,並藉此檢測資料產生變動的時間範圍。接著以結構性變動分析結果為基礎,檢測所有可能對機車交通事故死亡人數有所影響之事件,以 2001 年至 2018 年第一當事人為機車的交通事故 24 小時內死亡人數資料進行干預模型建構,並以 2019 年至 2020 年資料進行模型驗證。 本研究建構多種干預事件模型並比較後,具最佳配適度之模型顯示,對於機車交通事故死亡人數具顯著影響事件為:2007 年「惡性交通違規」專案、2011 年「路考標準修改」、2013 年「汽機車駕駛使用手機相關處罰規定、下修酒後駕車酒精濃度標準」、2014 年「實施初領機車駕照前先道安講習」、2016 年「胎紋深度檢查、電動車佩戴安全帽規定」、2017 年「高齡駕駛執照管理制度、錯誤使用方向燈及不當開啟車門開罰」,以及 2018 年「社會氛圍影響」等事件。本研究亦深入探討了顯著具效果之事件與不具效果之事件的可能原因。 Motorcycle is the main vehicle type who involved in traffic accidents, showing the importance of motorcycle traffic safety issues. Over the years, concerned department have implemented several policies aimed at improving the traffic safety environment. If the effect of the policies on motorcycle traffic safety can be analyzed, it could be used as an auxiliary information for developing traffic safety strategies. Traffic accidents data are suitable to be analyzed by time series method due to its characteristics. Time series decomposition and structural change analysis were first performed on the data from 2001 to 2019 as a preliminary analysis. Based on the results of structural change analysis, this study detect all events that may have an effect the death tolls in motorcycle traffic accidents, and build an intervention model based on the data of deaths tolls in motorcycle traffic accidents from 2001 to 2018, and make the model verification with data from 2019 to 2020. The most fitted intervention model shows the events that have significant effect are: 'cracking down malignant traffic violation projects' in 2007; 'road test standard amendment' in 2011; 'punishment regulations for the use of mobile phones for vehicles, and alcohol concentration standards for drunk driving amendment' in 2013; 'traffic safety lecture before the first time to acquire motorcycle license' in 2014; “tread depth inspection' and 'regulations of wearing helmets for electric vehicles” in 2016; 'driving license management of older' and 'penalties of wrong use of turn signals and improper opening of doors' in 2017; 'social environment' in 2018. This study also discuss the possible causes of significant and non-significant events. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/52587 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202002543 |
全文授權: | 有償授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 土木工程學系 |
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