臺灣第三勢力之空間分析

Abstract

本研究主要目的在探討臺灣第三勢力的空間分布。運用傳統以及空間分析方法，尋找出影響臺灣第三勢力空間分布的因素。 本文比較第三勢力各地區的差異及其空間分布型態，並試圖找出第三勢力是否隨著時間變化而有差異。而地區屬性是否影響了第三勢力的空間分布，特別是經社背景的影響，以及第三勢力的強弱是否受到鄰近效應的影響而有所不同。 研究發現，在社會流動率較低以及經社背景較低之地區第三勢力會有較高的獲票率，但是第三勢力受到經社背景的影響並不十分顯著，選戰策略、選舉制度以及地區異質對於臺灣的第三勢力佔了更重要的地位。而第三勢力的獲票率有空間聚集的現象，另外，第三勢力具有空間自相關，鄰近效應對於第三勢力的獲票率也有很大的影響。

The main propose of this research is to determine the spatial distribution of the third party in Taiwan using the traditional and the spatial analysis to look for the factors that affect the spatial distribution of the third party in Taiwan. This study analyzes the third party by comparing the differences of three areas and the spatial distribution, and trying to find: whether it has difference with the time changing. Whether the spatial distribution of the third party is affected by the regional differentiation or not, in particular by the impact of the social class. And whether the strength of the third party is affected by the neighboring. This research found that the third party will get the higher percentage of votes obtained in the region where is lower social mobility and lower socio-economic status. And finding there is no higher correlation between the third party and socio-economic status. Election strategy, election system and the heterogeneity of region have more important effect on third party. And the third party has the space association, while the neighboring has important influence on it.