台灣選民政治認同之世代分析

Abstract

本研究試圖呈現台灣地區民眾族群認同及政黨認同從1992年到2008年、十六年來的變化，並以世代分析方法釐清台灣民眾的族群認同及政黨認同究竟是受年齡、時期或政治世代影響為大。

使用資料共有五個來源，分別是政大選舉研究中心的1992年立委選舉、1996年總統選舉、2000年總統選舉、及臺灣選舉與民主化調查的TEDS2004P、TEDS2008P。分析方法則採用敘述性統計、虛擬變數迴歸及對數線性模型（log-linear model）三種統計分析方法。

結果發現台灣民眾的族群認同主要受到時期效果影響最大，其次是年齡效果，最後才是政治世代效果。而在族群認同方面分為三類，台灣人認同完全都是受到時期效果影響，雙重認同則主要受到年齡效果影響，中國人認同則是時期及年齡效果的影響都很大，但以時期效果又更為明顯。 台灣民眾的政黨認同則幾乎完全是受到時期效果影響，在三種分類中，泛藍認同及泛綠認同完全都受時期影響非常顯著，僅中間選民認同除了時期效果之外還受一點點年齡效果影響。

This thesis aims to identify both the ethnic and political party identities of the Taiwanese population and differences that occurred over a 16-year period between 1992 and 2008. It also analyzes whether the identities are affected by age, period or political generation by using cohort analysis. Data used in this analysis are all taken from face-to-face interviews conducted after national elections, including the 1992 legislative election study, the 1996 presidential election study, and the 2000 presidential election study from Election Study Center, NCCU, and TEDS2004P and TEDS2008P from Taiwan Election and Democratization Studies. Statistical methods used include descriptive statistics, dummy variable regression and log-linear models. Results from the analysis show ethnic identity in Taiwan is largely affected by the period effect, followed by the age effect and the political generation. Also shown is that there are three categories of ethnic identity: Taiwan identification is completely influenced by the period effect, dual identity is mainly affected by the age effect and Chinese identification is a result of both the period and age effects, with the period effect showing greater influence. Taiwanese political party identity is almost completely influenced by the period effect. The three sub-analyses show that the pan blue and pan green identities are clearly period effects. Only undecided voters are slightly affected by age as well as the period.