成本波動下替代性雙產品的採購與銷售策略研究

Abstract

本研究站在DRAM(Dynamic Random Access Memory)供應鏈中段，生產兩等級產品製造商的角度，在考慮上下游不確定性下，所採行之原料採購及產品銷售策略。上游之不確定性來自於波動原料價格，下游則來自於隨機產品需求。而兩種等級的產品，除了可以滿足各自需求，高級產品還可在普通級產品缺貨時，進行替代銷售來滿足普通級產品需求。 研究中採用動態規劃方法，將整段規劃時程切分成有限的期數以進行模型建立，並利用Microsoft Visual Basic語言撰寫程式進行求解。得到的結果包含在此原料價格波動下之採購策略、何種環境下適合進行替代銷售、利用高級品進行替代銷售與不進行替代銷售之利潤比較、以及面臨原料供應商提供之數量折扣契約之選擇依據。

The research is from the aspect of a manufacturer who produces two levels of end products in a DRAM(Dynamic Random Access Memory) supply chain, to consider the uncertainty of material price and the random demand of products, and hence to optimize the material purchase and marketing decision strategy. The two levels of products can satisfy their own demand; also, the higher level products can substitute the lower level products when there is a lower level product shortage. Dynamic programming is used here to develop the model. We divide the planning horizon into finite intervals, and find the solutions by programming the model in Microsoft Visual Basic. The results include purchasing strategies under pricing uncertainty, timing to apply substitution selling, and profit comparison between with and without substitution selling. Last, the suggestions for manufacturers when facing quantity discount contracts offered by material suppliers.