中國大陸出生人口性別比之空間分析研究

Abstract

中國出生性別比自1980年代以來逐年升高，遠高於正常值102~107的範圍，且失衡情形在地域空間上存在顯著的差異性；基於此，本研究主要目的要瞭解中國出生性別比失衡面貌，並探討影響出生性別比高低分佈的因素。 本研究以中國2352個縣級行政單位為觀察對象，選擇2000年中國第五次人口普查資料為主體，採空間計量研究方法，針對中國出生性別比問題進行傳統迴歸與空間迴歸分析。 結果發現，出生性別比的高低並非平均分佈，影響出生性別比升高的主因為生育空間與性別偏好的衝突，同時也受到鄰近地區的影響，變數中族群文化、婦女社會地位、人口政策具有顯著的負向影響效果，而平均活存子女數的高低則具高度正向的影響效果，但在模型的解釋下，仍存在部分區域無法完全被解釋，可能是受到難以量化的特殊歷史文化背景因素影響所致。

Sex ratio at birth in China has been gradually increasing since the 1980s. It has been much higher than the normal range of 102~107, and the imbalance were significant differences in space. For this reason, the main purpose of this study was to understand the imbalance of China's sex ratio at birth, and to explore the factors leading to sex ratio at birth distribution in China. This study used china's 2352 counties as the object of research, and selected China's fifth census data as the main body. Spatial econometric analysis was utilized including traditional regression model and spatial regression model. It was found that the level of sex ratio at birth was not evenly distributed. The main factor affecting the spatial aggregation of sex ratio at birth was the conflict between fertility space and gender preferences, and next was the preference of neighbors. We also found that the sex ratio at birth was negatively related to ethnic cultures, women's social status, population policy, and positively related to the average number of children alive. However, under the explanation of the model, there were still some regions could not fully be explained; the reasons might be that they were affected by the factors of special historical and cultural background.