廣場協議對台灣匯率政策影響的政治經濟分析

Abstract

匯率政策向來為政府經濟政策的重要一環，匯率政策的採行也隨著國情與時代遞移而有所不同，台灣政府自二次戰後往往主動積極介入新台幣匯率，希望能將匯率穩定再一定區間範圍，以利其經濟發展。隨著國際經濟環境改變，各國由原先的固定匯率制度改為浮動匯率，我國也自1978年改行機動匯率。 1985年前後，由於美國出現巨額的雙重赤字問題，引發檢討過於高估美元價格的呼聲，最後簽訂了廣場協議，聯合干預外匯市場，使得主要對美順差國貨幣（如日圓、西德馬克）相對美元升值。台灣對美國貿易一向有著巨額順差，廣場協議後也成為美國檢討的主要對象，在屢次的貿易與匯率談判中，新台幣匯率始終成為焦點。 可以發現不同行為者間有著不同的偏差，台美政府各有其偏差，進而成為其行為時的考量。為了避免美國的貿易報復，台灣政府最後採取的是緩步升值的策略，其主因是避免新台幣劇烈升值導致出口廠商受到巨幅影響，但是也造成了熱錢過多、股市、房地產狂飆等後遺症。

Exchange rate policy for the government's economic policy has always been an important part. Adoptions of exchange rate policy also shifted with the conditions and delivery times vary. Since the World War II, the Taiwan government tends to take an active involvement of NTD’s exchange rate, hoping to maintain the stability of exchange rate and a certain interval range in order to facilitate their economic development. As the international economic environment has changed, countries shifted their conventional fixed exchange rate system to a floating exchange rate system. Taiwan also diverted to floating rate system since 1978. 1985, due to the huge U.S. double deficit, overvalued dollar caused the voice to review its real value. And finally signed the Plaza Accord, the joint intervention in foreign exchange markets makes major country's currency which has huge surplus to the U.S. (such as the yen, deutsche mark) appreciate relatively dollar. After 1960’s, Taiwan has a huge trade surplus to U.S. After the Plaza Accord, Taiwan becomes the main target of the U.S. review, in repeated negotiations on trade and exchange rate, exchange rate of NTD has become the focus. Can be found between the different actors have different bias, Taiwan and the U.S. government has its own bias, and thus acts as its consideration. In order to avoid U.S. trade retaliation, Taiwan government takes a slow appreciation strategy finally. The main reason is to avoid sharp rise in NTD makes huge impact to exports of businesses. But it also resulted in too much hot money, the stock market, real estate boom and other sequelae.