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標題: | 氣候變遷衝擊河川水質永續管理之長期預警機制 A Long-Term Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Sustainable Water Quality Management |
作者: | Ting-Chuan Lee 李庭鵑 |
指導教授: | 童慶斌(Ching-Pin Tung) |
關鍵字: | 環境管理,氣候變遷,指標,水質,永續發展, Environmental Management,Climate Change,Water Quality,Early Warning,Sustainable Development, |
出版年 : | 2007 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 氣候變遷造成的影響不僅止於一時狀態之變化,而是短期的變異與長期平均狀態的持續改變。這樣的特性應配合環境管理建立長期規劃與短期操作機制,以確保社會經濟在運用環境資源維繫發展的同時,亦能保育生態環境。本文嘗試結合氣候變遷衝擊評估,建立河川環境的永續性預警機制,並將重點放在分析氣候變遷對於河川之水質與涵容污染能力之永續性危害。除了探討預警發佈時機,更將提出因應方案進行減災評估。
然而,評估未來氣候變化情形所存在的高不確定性,是建立預警首要需克服的難題。一般用於評估未來氣候變化的大氣環流模式(GCMs)模擬資料,由於模擬全球性氣候變化而資料的網格劃分尺度較大,對於河川流域此等尺度較小的改變無法反映出區域變化特性。因此本文運用統計降尺度模式(SDSM),將全球性大尺度資料進行區域性分析,並將資料應用於頭前溪流域,而結果顯示資料經降尺度分析後能合理反映此區域變化特性。 此外,藉由預設情境資料分析河川水質變化之結果,顯示河川枯水期水質要像之生化需氧量BOD濃度惡化,而河川可承載BOD污染的涵容能力呈現出弱化趨勢。因此,為了瞭解流域永續性受衝擊與發生危害的時期,將於評估氣候變遷衝擊的同時納入區域發展特性,藉由永續性預警指標(Early Warning Indicator, EWI)的建立以及分析危害發生時期,進而發佈事件預警,並且評估最佳的因應方案與明白何時該採取行動,再進一步發佈行動預警。 永續發展需要同時考量生態環境永續以及社會經濟發展,這兩者如何達到平衡是維繫永續發展的重要課題。但是,氣候變遷所帶來之衝擊正挑戰著人類應變的能力。為了避免變遷衝擊永續發展,希冀藉由評估衝擊所招致之危害,建立河川水質永續性預警機制,將可能面臨之危害事先揭露、提出警示,並規劃可採行的方案作為管理方針,確保河川流域在遭受衝擊的同時,仍可藉由預警機制的啟動達到永續發展之理念。 Climate Change impacts not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and on long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable environmental management with long-term formulation and short-term operation in sure keeping environmental sustainability as social economy developing using environmental resource. In this article, the climate change assessment has been combined to set up an early warning system for a river, and focus on analyzing climate change impacts on water quality and stream assimilative capacity. The issue of warning period is also discussed, and furthermore, the adaptative strategies are provided and evaluated. However, there is a problem for establishing an early warning system that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations would use global scale GCMs data but too rough-cut for estimating a smaller region, such a stream area. In order to get over the problem, the statistic downscaling model (SDSM) has been used for regional analysis and the data is applied for Touchen River in North Taiwan. The result shows that after downscaling can display regional characteristics reasonably. Farther, the data analysis also shows that in arid period, the concentration of BOD is growing worse. The BOD assimilative capacity of a river is confronted by decreasing. For understanding when will suffer the risk, not only climate change assessment but also local evolution will include to establish an early warning indicator (EWI) for analyzing the warning period, and then, to estimate the optimal strategy and when should take action. Furthermore, the acting warning will be alerted. For sustainable development, both bioenvironmental sustainability and social economy development are important. How to find a compromising point between human development and natural conservation is crucial. But climate changes impacts throw down the gage to our resource. To avoid the impacts, by impacts assessment we establish an early warning system for early warning what risk is, when risk will happen, and how we choose the optimal strategy for planning the course of management. Hopefully by setting up the framework of early warning system can defend stream area form impacts damaging and in sure the sustainable development. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/29551 |
全文授權: | 有償授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
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