國際企業規避匯率風險決策：日本營造業匯率避險政策個案探討

Abstract

2007年以來，外匯市場上之日圓匯率走勢，反覆變化短期波動極大，意味著持續存在不穩定的因素。對於極需立足於此一國際競爭激烈戰國時代之日本國際企業而言，幾次日圓劇烈升值的局面，已成為不可忽略的重要議題。加上世界經濟將邁向更加不透明的傾向、匯率變動將變得更難以預測，因此，考慮更適當的匯率財務政策對企業已是不可或缺的。 鑒於現有狀況，本論文矚目於日本營造業所面臨之匯率風險，並進行研究匯率避險之必要性。接著，將引發匯率變動之基本因素明顯化，透過深入探討目前影響匯率之主要因素，並藉此預測日圓未來走勢。為了探討持有與其他幣別不同特徵的日圓，決不可忽略日本經濟總體的考量，以仔細分析政府機關及民間企業所公佈的公開數據而進行深入研究。尤其是驗證日本政府長期所堅持之「超低利率政策」產生的新問題，確實把握日圓之不穩定走勢，再進一步探討日本營造業應予以考量之適切匯率避險策略。

This thesis explores currency hedge policies and strategies of a Japanese contractor. In fiscal year 2007, the exchange rate of Japanese Yen in a foreign exchange market continuously indicated sharp and short term fluctuations and it still remains very unstable today. The sharp strong yen is a very critical issue to the Japanese enterprises that must win an international competition era. Because the current world economy becomes more and more opaque, the exchange fluctuation will be even more unpredictable. Hence, it is essential for the Japanese enterprises to come up with exact financial strategy for exchange rate. Considering those situations, I focus on two issues in this paper; the exchange fluctuation risk for the construction company in Japan and the need of the exchange fluctuation risk hedge. First, I will clarify the basic factors that cause exchange fluctuation and then investigate into the very main factors that exert the biggest influence on exchange fluctuation at present, which will possibly predict the future of Japanese Yen. To examine the exchange rate of Japanese Yen that is particularly unique from other major currencies, the general analysis of the Japanese economy is inevitable. Therefore, I will review some of key official data that are available from the government organization and private enterprise and research more detail. Last I will discuss the exchange risk hedge of the Japanese construction industry with relation to the new problems caused by so-called 'the ultra low interest rate policy', which the Japanese Government maintains for a long period of time and is the exact source of unstable Japanese Yen presently.