美國電影票房績效研究：從口碑、影評、卡司與電影類型角度觀之

Abstract

本研究以2006年6月到12月在美國上映的302部為研究樣本，探討以下變數對票房的影響：觀眾口碑的分數與數量、影評口碑的分數與篇數、卡司的明星號召力(明星效果)與電影類型。其中明星效果的部份，乃透過創造一個「星力指數」作為衡量標準，該指數是以演員陣容是否曾在重大電影競賽中獲獎，而計算出一個加權平均值。研究結果發現不論是觀眾或是影評的口碑，口碑的數量比口碑的分數來的重要且具顯著性；此外電影類型與明星對於票房皆不具顯著的直接影響力，但兩者皆會對觀眾與影評的口碑數量造成影響。本研究除了討論四類自變數與依變數的關係之外，也討論了各自變數之間的關係，結果發現感官刺激程度較高的電影，諸如動作片及恐怖片，較能誘發觀眾傳達意見、達成製造口碑的目的。

The study aims to investigate how the quality and quantity of the word-of-mouth effect affect the box office performance of a film. The paper considers this effect both from the points of views of moviegoers and critics. It also puts the star power and movie genres into consideration. We create a star power index, a weighted average value of the awards the main crew won in their respective past record in certain important international film awards and festivals, to measure the value awarded celebrity contributes to their next work and observe the relationship between the star power and the box office. We use the internet movie data from International Movie Database (IMDb), Box Office MOJO and Metacritic to collect 302 movie samples which were released between June and December in 2006 in North American. The results show that no matter who creates the word of mouth (WOM), the quantity of WOM is more important than the quality. Once a movie can attract the attention of movie critics or the moviegoers, it tends to have a better box office performance. However, stars and different film genres do not have any significant effect on the box office, but they would have an influence on the word-of-mouth quantity. The results also show the movies with high sensor stimulate, such as horror and action films, would induce more audience to comment the movie and create a larger amount of word of mouth.