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Title: | 新藥研發專案之實質選擇權鑑價模型 A Real Option Model for Evaluating New Drug Discovery Projects |
Authors: | Yu-Ting Li 李郁婷 |
Advisor: | 余峻瑜 |
Co-Advisor: | 郭瑞祥,蔣明晃 |
Keyword: | 實質選擇權,製藥產業,研發投資專案,決策分析, Real options,Pharmaceutical,Research and Development,Decision anal-, |
Publication Year : | 2009 |
Degree: | 碩士 |
Abstract: | 實質選擇權是一種擁有買賣標的物為實質資產的權利,經常被用來評價各產業的研發專案。在研發密集的製藥產業,藥物的研發專案在研發的過程當中,通常受到內外在的因素影響,包括:專案的成長機會、不確定性,藥物試驗的成功機率,以及市場的競爭程度等。在這篇論文中,使用實質選擇權針對藥物研發專案在探索階段後期的投資決策進行分析。在不同內外在因素影響之下的投資選擇權,遞延選擇權,以及放棄選擇權皆被廠商所考慮,進而做出投資決策。本研究最後進行敏感度分析,檢視各主要因素與製藥廠商決策之間的動態關係。模擬結果顯示,在研發期間專案所受到的外在不確定性,以及攸關的成本,對於投資決策為最具影響力的因素。 Real options analysis (ROA) is frequently used for evaluating R&D projects. This thesis aims to apply the real options analysis to aid the decision-making at the end of new drug discovery process. External and internal factors influencing the value of a pharmaceutical research project, including market competition, growth opportunity of the project, and probability of success of clinical trials, are investigated. Options to invest, to suspend, and to abandon are simulated under di |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/22688 |
Fulltext Rights: | 未授權 |
Appears in Collections: | 商學研究所 |
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ntu-98-1.pdf Restricted Access | 668.02 kB | Adobe PDF |
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