分析潜在下市投資機會–以新加坡股市為例

Abstract

Shares investing is my hobby. There are many investment strategies depending on risk appetite and expected returns. The popular one widely-advocated by financial literacy books include value investing, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, etc. I am particularly interested in a speculative (in a risk-measured way) strategy, which is to identify and invest in companies that are potential targets of privatization because, the return can be significant. A 10-30% premium paid by the acquirer is not uncommon. This strategy is seldom being discussed, let alone being advocated, in investment books because it carries more risks. (E.g. well-managed companies but in a very unattractive industry or affected by cyclical downturn, or even companies who could be in a structural decline). Risks aside, it is also harder to execute as it is more qualitative than quantitative strategies like fundamental analysis or technical analysis. I will limit my research to only companies listed in the Singapore Exchange, where I am most familiar with. I shall study the reasons why listed companies are being privatized and, more importantly, the characteristics they displayed prior to being acquired to build a framework. I shall then use it to screen and shortlist some currently-listed companies with potential to be privatized. I will then select 3 stocks (with most likelihood to be privatized) for deep-dive analysis, before giving a final recommendation on which one (or all) to invest.