經濟政策不確性與投資效率

Abstract

過去文獻指出政策不確定性與企業投資呈現負相關，但並未探討政策不確定性與投資效率之間的關聯。本文探討政策不確定性與過度投資及過少投資之間的關聯，並且與過去政策不確定性領域文獻不同的是，我進一步區分企業總部所在國政策不確定性與世界平均政策不確定性。本文使用2001到2014年與九個國家或地區的資料，發現當政策不確定性越高，則企業過度及過少投資會減少，意即政策不確定越高則企業投資效率越高。此結果說明不論是企業總部所在國政策不確定性與世界平均政策不確定性皆對公司投資行為有顯著的影響。

Prior studies show that policy uncertainty is negatively related to corporate investment but whether higher policy uncertainty is associated with investment efficiency remains largely unexplored. To fill this research gap, this study examines the relation between policy uncertainty and over- or under-investment. Different from prior studies, I also examine the effect of headquarter country and world policy uncertainty. Using a sample of nine countries from 2001 to 2014, I find that higher policy uncertainty is negatively (positively) related to over-investment (under-investment). These results suggest that both headquarter country and world policy uncertainty influence firm’s investment behavior.