習近平時期中國能源安全與戰略之研究（2012-2016）

Abstract

近年能源安全已是中國國家安全重要一環，本文採取安全研究途徑、文獻分析法以及綜合能源安全理論架構針對習近平時期中國能源安全與戰略進行分析。本文提出三個研究問題：第一，習近平時期中國面臨之能源安全問題為何；第二，習近平時期中國能源戰略決策體制與能源戰略為何；第三，習近平時期中國能源戰略作為及其意涵為何。並藉由上述研究問題，試圖釐清習近平時期中國能源安全與能源戰略之內涵。 關於中國能源安全困境方面：第一，中國能以煤炭為主的能源結構導致「三高」經濟問題。第二，中國油氣能源高度仰賴進口且主要油氣進口區面臨政治風險。第三，中國能源進口路徑高度仰賴海運，特別是麻六甲航線。第四，中國能源國企由特定政治派系把持並面臨嚴重貪腐問題；第五，中國石油戰略儲備仍低於國際能源署建議之90天淨進口量。第六，中國面臨因能源導致的嚴重環境污染問題。 關於中國能源戰略決策體制與能源戰略方針方面：習近平2012年上任前，中國能源戰略決策場域主要位於國務院，並由國家能源委員會、國家能源委員會辦公室與國家能源局三個層級構成。習近平上任後，中共十八屆三中全會決議於黨中央之下成立涉及能源戰略決策的「中央國安委」以及「中央深改組」。中國能源戰略最高決策場域已有逐漸從國務院轉移至黨中央的趨勢；另一方面，習近平強調能源安全為事關國家「全局性和戰略性問題」，因此習近平能源戰略涉及政治、經濟、外交、軍事、戰略石油儲備、環境等多個領域。 關於中國能源安全作為與意涵方面：經濟面向為藉由能源革命推動能源結構和經濟結構轉型；外交面向為深化對外能源合作，並透過「一帶一路」、「亞投行」等國家戰略推展陸路能源合作；軍事面向為在「海洋強國」戰略方針下，發展海空軍力並於南海與非洲地區推展軍事布局；政治面向為打擊「石油幫」與能源國企貪腐問題；石油儲備安全則是建立石油儲備體系；環境安全則是發展非化石能源。 總結習近平時期中國能源戰略成效，除政治面向成效較為顯著外，其餘面向相對處於起步階段，習近平執政前期中國能源安全基本仍處於劣勢之中。然而，隨著中國國力快速增長以及習近平對於能源安全之重視，可預期未來中國將採取更為積極全面的能源戰略作為，改善中國能源安全之不利處境。

The energy security has been an important part of China national security. This paper adopts the security research approach, documentary analysis and the theory of comprehensive security to conduct the research on the China’s energy security in the Xi Jinping period. The paper raises three research questions: First, what is the energy security dilemma that China was facing with in the Xi Jinping period? Second, what are China’s energy strategy decision mechanism and the energy strategy in the Xi Jinping period? Third, what are the China’s energy strategy practice and its meaning in the Xi Jinping period? By the above research questions, the research attempted to clarify the meaning of the China’s energy security and the energy strategy in Xi Jinping period. About the dilemma of the China's energy security: First, the China’s energy structure which is dominated by coal leads to the three high economic problems. Second, China’s oil and gas energy highly depends on the imports, and the main area of oil and gas importation is facing the political risks. Third, the route of the China’s energy importation highly relies on the sea transportation, especially the Malacca routes. Fourth, the Chinese state-owned energy enterprises are dominated by the specific political factions and face the serious corruption problems. Fifth, China's strategic oil reserve is still lower than the IEA’s recommendation of 90 days of the net imports. Sixth, China is facing the serious environmental problems caused by the energy. As for the aspects of the China’s energy strategy decision mechanism and the energy strategic approach: Before Xi Jinping took office in 2012, the decision place of the China’s energy strategy is mainly in the State Council, and it is constituted by National Energy Commission, National Energy Commission Office and National Energy Administration these three levels. After Xi Jinping assumed office, 3rd Plenary Session of 18th CPC passed a resolution to establish The Central National Security Commission and The Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms which are related to the energy strategy decision under the central of CPC. China Energy Strategy’s highest decision-making field has gradually shifted from the State Council of the CPC to the central of CPC. On the other hand, Xi Jinping emphasized that the energy security is a matter of national global and strategic issue, so Xi Jinping’s energy strategy involves a number of fields such as political, economic, diplomatic, military, strategic oil reserves, and environment. As for the China’s energy security approach and the meaning: The economic aspect is to promote the transformation of the energy structure and the economic structure through the evolution of the energy. The diplomatic aspect is to deepen the foreign energy cooperation and take forward the overland energy cooperation through the national strategies such as One Belt and One Road and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The military aspect is to develop the naval and air force and take forward the military layout in the South China Sea and Africa area under the strategic approach of the oceanic great power. The political aspect is to combat the oil clique and the corruption of the state-owned energy enterprises. Security of the oil reserves is to establish the oil reserve system. Environmental safety is to develop the non-fossil energy. To summarize the performance of the China’s energy strategy in the Xi Jinping period, except the political-oriented performance is more notable, other aspects are still relatively at the initial stage. Basically China's energy security is still at a disadvantage in the Xi Jinping preliminary governing. However, as the rapid growth of China's national strength and Xi Jinping's attention to the energy security, it can be expected that China will adopt a more active and comprehensive energy strategy approach to improve the disadvantaged situation of China's energy security.