氣溫和雨量對蔬菜交易之影響--以西螺果菜市場大白菜為例

Abstract

台灣屬於海島型氣候，農作物每年幾乎皆會遭受異常溫度或雨量的影響，為評估天然災害對蔬菜類所造成的影響，本研究利用時間序列資料分析雨量和溫度對蔬菜供給需求產生交易量的衝擊，及天氣變遷影響民眾對蔬菜價格上漲和預期對蔬菜需求的改變造成平均價格之影響，並做為農業蔬菜產銷需求及供給之參考。 本研究之樣本資料來源為2008年至2010年中央氣象局和行政院農業委員會農糧署之農產品交易行情站之相關資料，並以雲林縣西螺果菜市場之大白菜每日交易量及價格作為分析資料。 實證研究結果顯示溫度對平均價格及交易量有顯著影響，雨量對平均價格及交易量有顯著之影響，溫度與雨量對平均價格有顯著正向影響，溫度與雨量對交易量具有顯著差異。近年來全球因為氣候變遷，對農作物成長影響甚巨，更是加劇了蔬菜價格的波動，因此菜價和氣候之關連性已經成為穩定菜價政策的重要參考依據。

Taiwan’s crops nearly suffer the unusual extreme temperature or the rainfall due to the island climate pattern every year. For the assessments of the impacts of natural disaster on vegetable industry, this research aims to use time series data to analyze the impacts of rainfall and the temperature on the vegetables’ prices and trading volume. The data source of this study is from Central Weather Bureau and the Council of Agriculture's agricultural trading market station from 2008 to 2010. Daily trading volume and prices data of Chinese cabbage in Siluo fruit and vegetable market inYunlin County are used in empirical study. The result showed that the rainfalls and temperature both have the significant influence on wholesale price and on trading volume. In addition, the temperature and the rainfall have the remarkable forward influence to the average price. The climatic change greatly influences on the crops growth, intensified the vegetables price fluctuation, therefore the relationship between vegetable price and climate becomes a crucial factor in designing a stable vegetable price policy. The results of this study may be used as a reference ofvegeta- ble production and marketing of agricultural demand and supply.