從全球化發展歷程看新冠肺炎疫情對台灣產業與新南向政策之影響

Abstract

全球化為世界發展取得重大成就並帶來長期繁榮景象，使其儼然成為一股不可逆的趨勢。然而全球化猶如一把雙面刃，帶來利益的同時也產生了各種弊病，例如國家發展不均、貧富差距、環境污染問題等。這些弊病始終伴隨全球化存在從未消失，只是繁榮景象將其掩蓋起來而已。隨著時間推進，被粉飾且持續擴大的裂痕終將浮現，最終使全球由合作走向分化。 本研究探討過去全球化發展歷程，發現全球化是在合作與分化間不斷循環的週期歷程，並將全球化發展歷程分為三段週期進行探討，分析得知各週期由合作走向分化通常會出現三大共通點，即國家發展不均、貧富差距擴大及新興勢力挑戰傳統霸權，並結合當今時事掌握未來的去全球化趨勢。 新冠肺炎疫情的爆發加速推進國際分化腳步，透過探討其對產業之衝擊，得知台灣乃至全球產業將捨棄過去全球化強調之效率，轉而追求更多備援，以應對未來更多的不確定性與風險。除了台灣產業外，近年來備受青睞的東南亞新興市場也深受疫情影響，因此台灣過去提出之新南向政策亦應作出相應變化。 本研究認為電子商務平台與物流流程優化將會是後疫情時代之重要發展趨勢，因此台灣政府除了協助國內相關產業進行轉型升級外，也可透過新南向政策整合並帶領台灣電商與物流業者進入東南亞市場提供跨境電商物流服務，支援台灣商品與品牌之海外發展，以團體作戰方式長期深耕東南亞市場。

Globalization, a strong growing global phenomenon involving cross border economical trading and investments that have led to a substantial amount of positive developments on an international scale. To date, it has become an essential approach for all countries to expand national presence and economic advancements. With that being said, the power of globalization is not without consequences. Significant global issues such as environmental pollution, wealth inequality are all caused by the act of globalization either directly or not. Hence, it has become a controversial topic as distinct arguments have occurred in recent years. This paper explores the transformation of globalization and believes that it has a certain progression life cycle of which constantly revolves between collaboration and division amongst countries. It would also discuss globalization further by dividing the life cycle into three main stages and of which three mutual factors have been discovered in every stage of the cycle. Those mutual factors include national development disparities, wealth inequality and a strong confrontation between contemporary and conservative parties. On top of that, this paper would also deliberate on the emerging trend of de-globalization based on in-depth analysis and incorporating current socioeconomic issues. At present, the sudden pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 has accelerated international differences between country leaders. It has also caused tremendous distress to all industries and most countries including Taiwan have abandoned the initial approach of globalization. In fact, many have diverted their national resources focusing on minimizing the negative impacts caused by COVID-19 and facing any unpredictable risks that may occur in the foreseeable future. Undoubtedly, the pandemic has also taken its toll on Southeast Asian countries which have been blooming in recent years. As such, the New Southbound Policy that was announced earlier by the Taiwanese government should be adjusted accordingly. Moving on, this paper suggests that online e-commerce retail platforms and enhanced logistic procedures shall be the essential factors of the post-pandemic economic reviving strategy. Therefore, apart from assisting relevant domestic industries, the Taiwanese government should also consider leading Taiwanese e-commerce platforms and logistic suppliers to enter the Southeast Asian market via the revised New Southbound Policy. Such measures would not only provide an opportunity for international expansions but also create a healthy economic alliance with the Southeast Asian region.