中國社會融資變化對經濟成長之影響

Abstract

近年來，隨著中國金融體系的進步以及金融創新的發展，傳統商業銀行的間接貸款佔據整體信用貸款市場的份額逐漸下降，相對應的企業股權融資、債券融資和銀行的表外融資等融資渠道開始出現，且於中國民間中還有P2P貸款等新的融資方式，呈現金融渠道和融資結構多元化發展的樣貌。在此種變化下，本篇論文不單單從社會融資整體規模衡量中國宏觀經濟數據的關係，而是藉由社會融資規模之細項，將融資渠道分為三大部分作分析，藉由對信貸狀況做更精細的分類，來探討不同融資渠道對於中國經濟成長之關係。 本文同時利用質化分析以及量化分析，分析各融資渠道對房地產市場以及經濟成長的影響。質化分析部分為利用折線圖的走勢變化，討論不同信貸傳導的關係。量化分析部分，使用之研究模型為結構式自迴歸模型(SVAR)，藉由此研究模型對直接融資、間接融資、影子銀行、利率、商品房銷售面積以及固定投資完成額等六個變數進行相關性分析，研究不同融資渠道對於商品房銷售面積和固定投資完成額之影響。並由上述兩種分析方式，得出信用貸款確實具有推動經濟增長的能力。

In recent years, with the advancement of China's financial system and the development of financial innovation, the indirect loans of traditional commercial banks have gradually decreased their share of the overall credit loan market. Corresponding financing channels such as corporate equity financing, bond financing, and off-balance sheet financing by banks. It has begun to appear, and there are new financing methods such as P2P loans among China, showing the diversified development of financial channels and financing structures. Under this change, this paper not only measures the relationship between China's macroeconomic data from the overall scale of social financing, but also divides the financing channels into three major parts for analysis by the details of the scale of social financing. Make a more detailed classification of the situation to explore the relationship between different financing channels for China's economic growth. The research model used in this paper is the structured autoregressive model (SVAR). Through this research model, the correlation analysis of six variables such as direct financing, indirect financing, shadow banking, interest rate, commercial housing sales and fixed investment completion amount is studied. The impact of different financing channels on the sales area of commercial housing and the fixed investment completion amount.