貿易自由化後臺灣肉品市場供銷調節與調配機制關係之研究

Abstract

臺灣養豬產業面對豬隻口蹄疫事件與加入世界貿易組織等衝擊之後，使得臺灣養豬產業成為淺盤內銷市場型態下，易造成豬價超漲或超跌的現象。在這種情形下，肉品市場透過其預估之預供拍賣需求量，並透過供銷調配機制所商定拍賣頭數運作，以產生實際均衡價量關係，故供銷調配機制之功能格外重要。 本研究透過蒐集2005年1月∼2010年6月調配會議紀錄資料為研究樣本，以供給與需求理論為基礎，並以實務調配業務經驗為輔，探討臺灣肉品市場供銷調節與調配機制之關係。利用敘述統計及簡單迴歸模型，估計月份、日均頭數、平常日與春節期間之毛豬拍賣價量相關性。從結果分析顯示：（1）月預供與月商定拍賣頭數間具正向相關，且存在定額差距，顯示調配機制之運作功能；（2）月與日均之商定與實供拍賣頭數呈現高度相關，顯示調配機制對實供拍賣頭數之預測能力；（3）春節期間月商定及月實供拍賣頭數仍呈現高度正向相關，驗證調配機制在春節期間可發揮其功效；(4)春節期間月平均價格與年平均價格之變動呈現相同趨勢，顯示調配機制在春節期間具有穩定拍賣價格之功效。由以上發現可知，調配機制與肉品市場供銷調節相關性高，調配機制具有調節供需達成市場均衡之功能。

After Taiwan pig's industry faced shocks of the pig's foot-and-mouth disease incident and accession to WTO, the phenomenon of high fluctuation in its prices becomes obviously under the market-oriented attitude sold inside the country. In such a case, the actual equilibrium in meat price and quantity of pork products is established by estimating the number of heads for auction and through the supply-distribution adjustments and regulation mechanism for the negotiated number of pigs to auction. It is apparent that the mechanism mentioned above is important to supply and marketing in the meat market. The monthly data collected in the study is based on the record of adjustment-regulation mechanism meeting from January 2005 to June 2010. In addition, the study investigates the relationship between supply-distribution adjustments and regulation mechanism in Taiwan meat market based on supply and demand theory with the help of practical business experience. The methodology of the study consists of descriptive statistics and simple regression models which analyze the price-quantity relationship under auction, including the variables of the average daily, the monthly, and lunar-year-holiday heads of pigs for auction. The results have the following findings：(1) The monthly estimated and negotiated heads for auction shows a highly positive relationship and the difference between these two exists with a constant value. It reveals the result of the operation procedure in the mechanism. (2) The relationship between the number of monthly (and daily) negotiated and actual heads for auction presents a highly positive correlation. This indicates the ability of the mechanism for predicting the number of actual heads for auction. (3) During the lunar-year holiday, the relationship between the number of heads in negotiation and that in actuality is also highly correlated which indicates the role of the mechanism in efficiency. (4) The change of monthly average price and annual average price presents the same trend during the lunar-year holiday. This indicates that the mechanism can also provide the function of keeping the auction price in steadiness. All of findings above shows that the mechanism plays an important in adjusting pig supply and provides equilibrium in supply and demand.