住商建築規模成長推估與碳排基線之研究

Abstract

為了確立我國2050淨零建築路徑減碳目標與評估成效，必須建立一個能夠同時考量氣候變遷與住商建築規模成長之全國住商建築溫室氣體排放基線模型。本研究係針對我國住商建築溫室氣體排放量建立推估模式，同時考量未來氣候變遷與住商建築未來規模成長等因子，進行我國住商建築能源消耗與碳排放量之分析與預測。基於本研究所建立之基線模型，可提供政府作為未來住商部門減碳目標設定與成效評估之重要參考依據。

To establish Taiwan’s 2050 net-zero emissions pathway for buildings and assess its effectiveness, it is essential to develop a national baseline model of greenhouse gas emissions from residential and commercial buildings that takes into account both climate change and future building stock growth. This study develops a forecasting model for greenhouse gas emissions from Taiwan’s residential and commercial buildings, integrating projections of climate variation and building scale expansion. The resulting baseline model serves as a key reference for government agencies in setting emission reduction targets and evaluating the effectiveness of related policies.