天氣與交通違規之關聯性分析:臺灣的實證分析

Abstract

現今已有諸多研究指出天氣變化會誘發人類的違法行為，但是研究其對交通違規影響的文章卻付之闕如。本研究利用 2011 年至 2019 年，臺灣歷史氣候重建資料與臺灣地區交通違規之行政資料，探討溫度及雨量與交通違規數量的關聯性。實證結果發現，溫度與交通違規存在正向關聯性，且在日均溫大於 28°C 之情況有更顯著的效果。而雨量的結果則相反，顯示在雨天交通違規行為有所減少。本文研究結果在不同模型假設和檢驗下仍具有穩健性。此外，本文亦發現相較於汽車駕駛人，溫度對機車騎士有更明顯的關聯性，顯示當外部天氣炎熱時，汽車內部的溫度調節系統達到保護作用。

An emerging literature has documented climate-induced unlawful behaviors. Using high-resolution weather data and administrative traffic violation records in Taiwan from 2011 to 2019, we investigate the impacts of temperature and rainfall on traffic violations. The results show that elevated temperatures increase traffic violations and that the effects are stronger on days with average temperature exceeding 28°C. On the other hand, the results for rainfall are the opposite, showing a decrease in traffic violations during rainy conditions. Our results are robust to various model specifications and checks. Furthermore, we find that the impact of temperature is more pronounced among motorcycle and scooter riders than among car drivers, suggesting that climate control systems in cars provide protection during high-temperature conditions.