匯率波動對泰國貿易的影響

Abstract

許多學術研究人員，嘗試去研究，匯率波動對國際間貿易的影響。主因是匯率造成貨物訂價上的不確定性，也影響商品貿易交易的數量。 在這篇研究文章上，我們最主要探討的是：匯率的波動性對經歷亞洲金融風暴後的泰國，在貿易量上是否有任何影響。更進一步地，我們測試了泰國的匯率波動性，對其與三個主要貿易對手：美國、日本及台灣間的影響。 我們應用了 “augmented Dickey-fuller” 方法及 “Johansen cointegration” 方法，以探討國際貿易與其決定因素。結果是，五個案例顯示：匯率波動性確實相當程度影響泰國的進出口量。其中的四個案例顯示：匯率波動性對國際貿易造成負面的影響。

Many researchers have tried to find the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade. Because exchange rate variability can affect the volume of goods traded internationally by making prices and profits indeterminate or uncertain. The question we have explored in this research is whether exchange rate volatility has had any detrimental impact on trade flows in Thailand during the post-Asian-crisis period. Furthermore this research tests the impact of exchange rate volatility on Thailand’s bilateral trades with three major partners: United States, Japan, and Taiwan to understand more about the relations. The augmented Dickey-fuller method and the Johansen cointegration method are applied to study the relationship between international trades and its determinants (including exchange rate volatility). Results, five cases indicate that exchange rate volatility significantly affected exports or imports of Thailand. Four cases out of these five cases indicate that exchange rate volatility adversely affected the international trade.