我國軍事投資預算分配之分析

Abstract

國防資源的分配與決策是國家安全戰略實施的關鍵環節，其配置效率將直接影響國家防衛能力的建構與維持。因此，在當前複雜的區域安全環境下，如何確保有限的國防預算能夠有效支撐戰略目標，已成為亟待深入研究的重要課題。

本研究旨在檢視我國戰略規劃與實際軍事投資預算資源分配的相符程度，並探討導致兩者偏差的結構性因素，以填補國防資源配置效率評估研究的空白。研究採用混合研究法，結合軍事投資預算的量化分析與退役高階軍官的深度訪談，從戰略一致性角度評估三大作戰構想（戰力防護、聯合制海、聯合國土防衛）的資源配置狀況。

研究發現我國軍事投資可能存在明顯的結構性失衡現象，如資源分配重心過度集中於聯合制海作戰，而戰力防護投資占比持續下降，顯示現行配置模式未能充分回應當代威脅環境的防衛需求；而質性訪談結果也證實了量化分析的發現，並揭示戰略規劃缺乏高層指導、政治因素干擾決策，以及軍種本位主義等深層次問題。

基於研究發現，本研究針對現行國防資源配置機制提出系統性改革建議，包括建立清晰的國家安全戰略指導框架、重新平衡各作戰構想的投資比例，以及加速向不對稱戰力轉型等政策建議。本研究期待對戰略研究和國防武獲管理實務具有重要的理論與實踐價值，並為國防資源配置評估上提供了新的分析框架，以未來深化國防資源管理研究奠定基礎。

Defense resource allocation is critical to national security strategy implementation, with efficiency directly affecting defense capabilities. In the current complex regional security environment, ensuring limited defense budgets effectively support strategic objectives has become an urgent research priority.

This study examines alignment between Taiwan's strategic planning and actual military investment allocation, exploring structural factors causing deviations to fill gaps in defense resource allocation assessment research. Using mixed-methods combining quantitative budget analysis with interviews of retired senior military officers, this study evaluates resource allocation across three operational concepts: force protection, joint sea control, and joint homeland defense.

The research reveals significant structural imbalances in Taiwan's military investment, with resources heavily concentrated on joint sea control while force protection investment declines, indicating current allocation patterns fail to respond to contemporary threat environments. Qualitative interviews confirm these findings and reveal deeper issues including lack of high-level strategic guidance, political interference, and inter-service parochialism.

Based on these findings, this study proposes systematic reform recommendations for defense resource allocation mechanisms, including establishing clear strategic guidance frameworks, rebalancing investment proportions across operational concepts, and accelerating transformation toward asymmetric warfare capabilities. This research provides value for strategic studies and defense acquisition management, offering a new analytical framework for defense resource allocation assessment and laying foundations for future research.