臺灣每日股市報酬與交通違規數量之關聯性分析

Abstract

經濟市場受到負面衝擊時，可能會促使風險趨避行為增加，例如減少交通違規等會造成財物損失的行為。本研究估計臺灣證交所編制之加權股價報酬指數與2011至2019年各鄉鎮市區交通違規數量之間的關聯性，結果發現當期交易日股市報酬每下降1個百分點，臺灣各鄉鎮市區交通違規數量會減少0.3%，而且這種影響是非線性的。一系列的穩健性檢定、證偽檢定也支持本研究對於此關聯性的解釋。此外，我們對交通違規案件中各種不同群體進行異質性分析，結果顯示股市表現與違規停車、闖紅燈、違規爭道等類別之交通違規有顯著的關聯性，而與營業用車駕駛人所參與之交通違規案件無關。且此影響與年紀越大、可支配所得越低之群體的關聯性較大。本研究結果顯示，臺灣股市報酬對於駕駛人降低風險承擔能力的行為具有立即性影響，且此關聯性只存在於股市表現較差的期間。

In response to negative economic shocks, risk-averse behaviors may increase, subsequently reducing incidents like traffic violations that lead to property damage. This study estimates the relationship between the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) Total Return Index and the quantity of traffic violations across townships and districts in Taiwan from 2011 to 2019. We find that for each one percent reduction in stock market returns on the same trading day is associated with a 0.3% decrease in the number of traffic violations, and this effect is asymmetric. A series of robustness checks and falsification tests also support the interpretation of this relationship. Additionally, our analysis of heterogeneity among different groups within traffic violations reveals that stock market performance is related to specific categories of violations such as illegal parking, running red lights, and lane violations, but not to traffic violation cases involving commercial vehicle drivers. Moreover, this impact is more strongly associated with older individuals and those with lower disposable incomes. The results demonstrate that stock market returns have an immediate effect on reducing risk-taking behaviors among drivers in Taiwan, and this relationship only exists during periods of poor stock market performance.